Critical September rainfall to define Victorian farmers' year
September is set to make or break the season with farmers poised to come back from the brink of another tough year. See the latest outlook.
Southeast Australia’s season is poised to come back from the brink of another tough year, but optimism comes with a vital caveat: rain in September.
Winter has provided close to or above-average rainfall across parts of Victoria, building hope in livestock producers and croppers alike. But the next few weeks will prove critical, with some areas showing promise while others have a long way to go.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest three-month outlook is positive, forecasting a wet spring and a 60-80 per cent chance of above-average rainfall for most of eastern Australia, with October a key rainfall month.
“Much of eastern and parts of central Australia face an increased chance of unusually high rainfall (across the next three months),” the report said.
The BOM defines unusually high rainfall as in the highest 20 per cent of September to November falls recorded between 1981 and 2018. However, temperatures are also expected to be higher than normal across much of southeast Australia.
Agriculture Victoria seasonal risk agronomist Dale Grey said some areas were in a position to go three to four weeks without significant rainfall while others had a shorter time frame of half this.
“What we need is frequent rainfall and kind temperatures, as soil moisture profiles are not full, and that’s ideally what we would like going into spring,” Mr Grey said.
He noted that while a negative Indian Ocean Dipole — normally a driver of wetter conditions — had been in place for six weeks, it was yet to deliver.
“We’ve been dominated by high pressure systems which have been blocking rainfall patterns,” Mr Grey said.
“Even if we could get average rainfall over the next couple of months would be good enough.”
In Victoria’s North East, Paull and Scollard Nutrien Myrtleford livestock specialist Dan Ivone said the region needed a wet spring to get them back on track.
He said producers who were understocked were starting to see growth but those who had tried to hold numbers had paddocks which were green but not offering much feed.
“There are those who have stopped hand feeding, but it’s as much about running out of hay and not wanting to pay $10,000-$15,000 a load as it is about having enough paddock feed,” Mr Ivone said.
“We have producers who have sold one to two months early and our store sales in October and December at Myrtleford will definitely be down in numbers.”
Mr Ivone said rainfall of 27mm in the past week was not enough to shift fortunes dramatically.
“You can drive across gullies and not get bogged,” he said. “We need a wet spring so we can get feed but also grow enough to make hay and restock sheds.”
In the Wimmera, Driscoll Ag agronomist Ashlee Bowen said the next few weeks would determine yields, with most crops running late.
“We always need rain in spring to finish crops but this year, we don’t need it to get too hot too early,” Ms Bowen said.
“Crop development is really varied across this area (St Arnaud) and we definitely don’t want 30C days this month.”
She said rain in the past week was valuable, given she’d previously been “kicking up dust” while driving across paddocks, despite it being the tail end of winter.
“More rain soon would be nice,” she said. “If you have been lucky enough to get under a cloud or a storm, things are going OK but it also depends on your soil type as to how the crops are tracking.”
In Gippsland, conditions are more dire. Giffard livestock producer Ivan Best measured just 5mm of rain in the past week and is now feeding pellets after exhausting hay and silage reserves.
“Our paddocks are painted green, but there is no feed, and three frosts took whatever growth we were getting,” Mr Best said. “There’s no joy in the season here.”
He said at least 50mm was needed soon to turn things around.
In the Western District, winter rain is slowly helping. The region recorded about 25mm last week, with some farmers measuring double that. Inverleigh farmer Stewart Hamilton said the moisture was aiding crop recovery, though growth remained behind average.
“Overall we’re heading in the right direction, even if we’re not going to break any records,” he said.
Frosts had passed with minimal impact and moderate temperatures were giving farmers hope. “We have crops with some potential, we just need Mother Nature to deliver a good spring,” he said.
Mr Hamilton said stock water remained patchy, with some bores holding up but a few dams still dry.
Further north in southern NSW, Tocumwal farmer Ted Hatty, who grows both summer and winter crops, said spring rain would be crucial.
He has been closely assessing forecasts to gauge the outlook for the season and is particularly concerned about low irrigation water allocations in the Murray system with just 2 per cent announced to date and stock water in limited supply, with minimal run-off
“While recent rainfall has helped a little, growth is still behind where it should be at this stage,” Mr Hatty said.
“Crops are holding up reasonably well, and there’s still solid potential if the moisture continues.”
