What the US beef herd stats tell us about world wide supply

Beef producers could draw confidence from the latest cattle herd numbers out of the US. See the latest numbers.

Australian beef producers could draw confidence from statistics presented to their United States counterparts as that country’s herd falls to its lowest level in 50 years.

And delegates at the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association conference in Florida were told expansion of the national US herd would stall despite seasonal conditions changing in many areas.

CattleFax is a US beef analysis company and vice-president Kevin Good said growth to the cow herd would be limited in the near term.

The US beef herd fell 2 per cent last year and sat at 28.2 million at this start of this year.

“Though drought conditions did improve in many regions, over a third of the cow herd was affected by drought in 2023, causing limited heifer retention and more liquidation in some regions,” Mr Good said.

Forecast cow and bull slaughter is expected to be down 800,000 this year to 6.5 million.

Feeder cattle supplies as well as calves sold outside of the lot fed system are expected to be down one million on last year, to just over 24 million.

And while feedlot numbers are up at the start of the year (rising 2 per cent to 11.9 million) that’s not expected to last and “decline significantly through the second half of the year”,” Mr Good said.

The flow on effects are predicted to see beef production to fall more about 454,0000 tonnes to 11 million tonnes after a similar fall the year before.

The 13 per cent fall in US beef exports last year and predictions of a 5 per cent fall this year will push less beef into the global supply chain. The two biggest customers for US beef exports are Japan and South Korea.

This could be seen as good news for countries which export beef to the US and other global destinations, but there was a caveat given by CattleFax.

“When thinking about what demand looks like, we need to think about what our consumer looks like with the US economy being the driving factor going into 2024,” Mr Good said. “Though inflation has moderated, consumer debt and interest rates, cheaper alternative.

“Premiums for higher quality beef should remain as consumers have shown a willingness to pay for choice grade or better beef.”

CattleFax projections show the US cattle cycle and rebuild would be “much slower and prolonged” compared to the last rebuild phase and said heifer retention had not started on a nationwide basis.

The organisation predicts cattle prices will not peak in the US until 2025-2026.