What a declining US beef herd means for Aussie ag

There is good news and bad news for Australian producers with the US beef herd expected to decrease by less than previously forecast.

The continued liquidation of the beef herd in the United States is both bad and good news for Australian producers.

While in the short term it means more US beef in the global market, the longer term benefits auger well for Australian producers in supplying any deficit when the US supply falls.

Meat and Livestock Australia global supply analyst Tim Jackson said world wide supplies of beef were expected to remain stable at 59.5 million tonnes this year, and part of that was due to increased US beef production.

“The forecast (of global beef production) attributes this almost entirely to the upward revisions to American beef production, with expectations that it would now decline only 3 per cent in 2024, instead of the 6 per cent previously forecast,” Mr Jackson said.

“This points to a continued decline in the American cattle herd, and a much longer herd liquidation than previously expected.”

Mr Jackson said the United States Department of Agriculture had not released its latest figures in terms of cattle populations, but the US herd was expected to be its “lowest in decades while the female slaughter rate remains well above 50 per cent”.

World wide supplies of beef were expected to remain stable at 59.5 million tonnes this year. Picture: Zoe Phillips

The other major player in global beef production will also have increased production, albeit more moderate volumes.

Brazil is on track to produce 10.8 million tonnes this year, up 3 per cent, partially due to a rise in female slaughter but also due to a lift in the Brazilian national herd, Mr Jackson said.

This will be balanced by a fall in production in Argentina, which is expected to experience a 6 per cent fall to 3 million tonnes this year.

Australian expected beef production for 2024 will become clearer later next month when MLA releases its annual cattle industry projections, but the USDA has already predicted production will rise 8 per cent to 2.35 million tonnes.

“Once again, this points to the fact that Australia is a major player in beef exports, while being a relatively small beef producer,” Mr Jackson said.

“With exporters forecast to rise by 10 per cent according to the USDA, Australia will be the second largest beef exporter after Brazil.

“The USDA release shows that Australia is in a good position to compete internationally, especially with the continued decline in the American herd.”