Mutton leaps $30 a head at Bendigo but market is yet to peak, grazier says

Mutton prices have leapt again this week, as a market analyst describes its trajectory this year as “incredibly volatile”.

Mutton prices are soaring again as a Bendigo sale reached a $30 increase, despite a drop in mutton production this year.

Meat and Livestock Australia’s national mutton indicator currently is sitting at 556c/kg, after it previously peaked at 624c/kg in early May. That was the highest peak since July 2022.

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed mutton production dropped this quarter to 71,000 tonnes, after reaching 78,300 tonnes in the last quarter of 2024.

Meanwhile, mutton prices at Bendigo Livestock Exchange jumped $30 a head to $50 for heavy ewes on Monday.

Bendigo agents yarded 17,350 sheep and lambs on Monday, with 8350 crossbred lambs, 3250 Merino lambs and 100 store lambs.

Meat and Livestock Australia senior market analyst Erin Lukey said supply remained relatively strong despite recorrections.

“The mutton indicator has been incredibly volatile over the past three months, we’ve seen really strong peaks and recorrections. It’s been driven by very strong demand from processors,” she said.

Ms Lukey said the processor demand aligned with the announcement of more export licences to China granted in late-April.

“The first sales of this week we saw a bit of a pullback in terms of supply, we often see supply come down at this time of year so it could be the start of a dwindling in the supply of mutton,” she said.

“Because of strong prices a lot of people have put sheep out to sale, but it will take a couple of weeks to see if that’s the case, and it’ll be interesting to see what happens at Wagga Wagga (on Thursday).”

Robert Sheridan of Junee in southern NSW believed the mutton market hadn’t reached its peak yet and expected it would hit at least 600c/kg carcass weight again soon.

“Once it rains, and it will, sellers will hold back stock, and then demand will increase,” he said.

Mr Sheridan, who managed a specialist prime lamb operation, sold second-cross progeny most weeks of the year. However, he said it had been increasingly difficult to source breeding ewes. That meant they simply weren’t about it.

“For now, it is actually cheaper to buy a suitable ewe to join than it is to breed them, I bought some for about $150 last year,” he said.

Mr Sheridan sold second-cross lambs by Poll Dorset rams at Wagga Wagga Livestock Marketing Centre last Thursday for $305. It was a price he was happy with, and he estimated they weighed 33 to 34 kilograms dressed.

However, the biggest challenge at the moment was in sourcing feed.

“We normally use our own supply; we rarely buy in grain, but this year we have had to.”