More light lambs at Hamilton, fewer trade lambs on offer

The number of light lambs sold in the past two months has increased significantly, but is this a trend or purely seasonal influences?

Who would have predicted that the highest price point for slaughter lambs this season would have appeared in mid December?

From a low of 440c/kg carcass weight for heavy lambs in September to a peak of 692c/kg the week before Christmas. The greater question from such a rare occurrence is what is going on within the lamb industry.

Is it purely seasonal influences or has the make-up of the flock changed enough to now be altering traditional price patterns? It is Christmas food for thought, with some interesting data if you dig around.

The topic was raised by a major lamb buyer who recently spent time in the Western District and told The Weekly Times it was an “eye opener” to see the amount of very young late-drop and lightweight lambs being sold.

“Everyone focuses on this big flush of lambs to come out of the south, and there is, but in reality not many of them are actually at (domestic and export) slaughter weights,” he said.

The National Livestock Reporting Service monitors the weekly Hamilton lamb and sheep sales, and its data revealed the number of light lambs, under 18kg carcass weight, had doubled this November and December sale period compared to the same months in 2022. At the same time the lambs above 18kg declined slightly, meaning while Hamilton sold more lambs this past six weeks or so there were actually fewer to suit trade, supermarket and export processors.

The indicator data from the Hamilton lamb sale in November and December, as supplied by the NLRS was:

2023: 91,845 light lambs under 18kg sold, equalling 38 per cent of the offering, against 150,193 lambs above this weight;

2022: 47,538 light lambs sold for 23 per cent of the offering, against 158,993 heavier lambs;

2021: 102,858 light lambs or 38 per cent, compared to 165,761 heavier lambs;

2020: 85,927 light lambs or 29 per cent, compared to 206,020 heavier lambs sold; and

2019: 38,047 light lambs or 17 per cent, against 179,824 heavier lambs.

The data suggests a decline in heavier weighted lambs and a trend to more lighter types at Hamilton.

Selling Merino wether lambs at the Jerilderie, NSW, sheep sale earlier this year.

An issue raised was the influence of composite sheep which have become popular in the south for their high lambing percentages, but critics say can be more difficult to join early leading to later lambing and lighter weight progeny.

However any analysis around the sale data is subject to a lot of variables, including season and market trends – one Hamilton agent suggesting the sheer demand for store lambs last year meant a lot of light lambs were sold direct and didn’t make it into the auction system. Whereas this year the step-up in demand by processors for MK or ‘bag lambs’ meant more lambs under 20kg were being sold at saleyards.

To broaden the analysis, the number of light lambs being sold at saleyards nationally has been high this year.

Using NLRS data again, the number of small lambs in the 12-16kg category sold in the auction system this year is up more than 20 per cent and is at the highest level since the drought year of 2019.

The season is obviously a key factor with feed availability determining lamb weight and the ability of farmers to hold stock.

But is there a deeper influence of lambing pattern and breed, and has the once reliable autumn and winter price premiums for lamb been ironed out of the system by the move to lambing nearly all year round, and the constant push for high lambing percentages?

Evidence of how many late drop lambs are now out there was seen when the supply of old shorn lambs carried on into September and October this year.

The topics of lambing times and breed on price and supply are certainly being talked about, even if there is no definitive answer with season arguably trumping them all at times.

Looking forward, agents maintain this coming year looks bright for lamb with fewer numbers being sold to store buyers and more light types being processed early by MK ‘bag lamb’ orders.

Hopefully it proves accurate as those producers who specialise in finishing lambs for the winter and autumn need a good year after some poor results.