MLA’s Beef Producer Intention Survey shows more positive signs

A major survey by Meat and Livestock Australia shows beef producers in eastern Australia are more positive about the industry than they were last year. Here’s why.

Australian beef producers are more positive about the industry compared to last year.

It comes as the weather forecast is more favourable in many regions, prices have somewhat improved and export demand is strong.

According to the latest Beef Producer Intentions Survey released last week, which is run three times a year by Meat and Livestock Australia, one in two producers saw a positive outlook, resulting in a nett positive sentiment increase of 11 per cent to 34 per cent compared to the November 2023 survey.

Meanwhile, 16 per cent had a negative outlook and 31 per cent were uncommitted and uncertain about the next 12 months.

The survey spoke to 3223 grass-fed producers in April and May this year.

It also found 28 per cent of producers would increase their herd size in the next 12 months, 54 per cent would remain unchanged and 19 per cent would decrease herd size.

Beef producers are feeling more positive than last year. Picture: Zoe Phillips

MLA’s manager for market information Stephen Bignell, said the results suggest Queensland, NSW and Victorian producers were more positive than producers in other states.

“(This) is mostly due to an increase in prices and increased confidence following rain over the summer,” Mr Bignell said.

“Producers in Western Australia continue to report a far less positive outlook, driven by a fall in prices and a lack of rainfall in key cattle grazing areas.”

Mr Bignell said there was a clear change in intention from that reported in the November 2023 survey where there was a stronger intention to reduce herd sizes, reflecting the dry conditions heading into summer.

StoneX livestock and commodities manager Ripley Atkinson said the strongest improvements in sentiment were in NSW, rising by 35, and Victoria, rising by 22, since November.

“It’s interesting to see Victorian sentiment rising despite the drought conditions many parts of Victorian cattle regions have experienced so far in 2024,” he said.

Episode3 direct and analyst Matt Dalgleish said the outlook for beef for the rest of this year was quite positive, with strong demand from the “United States not going away in a hurry”.

“That demand should keep prices underpinned,” he said.

The survey also focused on measuring the demographics of the herd and it has been estimated there are just over 26 million on-farm grass-fed adult beef cattle in Australia.

Queensland accounts for 48 per cent of the herd size, while NSW has 20 per cent.