MLA: Lamb numbers to rise

An influx of lambs is still expected at saleyards in coming weeks, but where prices will end up is anyone’s guess. The latest MLA forecast hasn’t provided a price estimate.

Lamb prices have continued their erratic run this week, with gains of $5 to $18 on Monday, due to fewer lambs yarded at major saleyards.

And with more lambs carried over from last year expected in saleyards in the next six weeks, prices — and the volume of lambs left on-farm — are proving hard to predict.

Meat and Livestock Australia’s key industry forecast has even shied away from making a prediction on where prices will go.

In the sheep industry projections released yesterday, MLA said “for the first release of sheep projections for 2022, the industry analysts’ National Trade Lamb Indicator forecast was not

conducted due to Christmas and New Year shutdown periods, among other industry challenges”.

On Monday the national trade lamb indicator was at 832c/kg carcass weight, 17c/kg lower than last year and the heavy lamb indicator was 827c/kg, 24c/kg down on a year ago.

Elders Bendigo livestock manager Nigel Starick said prices were “very erratic” from week to week.

Elders Bendigo livestock manager Nigel Starick says the lamb market is hard to predict at the moment.

“Normally we can pick the market a bit and help producers make informed decisions about when to sell, but it has just been erratic,” he said.

One thing industry analysts and agents agree on is there is still a large number of last season’s lambs still to be sold, which will likely be sold in the heavier lamb categories in the coming six weeks.

“A lot of lambs have been held back so they have to come in at some point. So there could be an oversupply in March, which could soften the market,” Mr Starick said.

Thomas Elder Markets analyst Matt Dalgleish said prices were currently holding up well, but more price pressure for heavy lambs may appear as numbers in saleyards increase.

MLA’s industry projections are predicting the national sheep flock to grow 4.9 per cent to 74.4 million head this year, to reach its highest level since 2013.

MLA market information manager Stephen Bignell said due to the large size of last year’s lamb cohort they are expecting an influx of lambs to hit the market early this year, with lamb

slaughter expected to reach 21.6 million head this year and sheep slaughter is expected to reach six million head, a 17.6 per cent increase on last year.

“Overall, Australia’s sheepmeat industry is positioned to strengthen, and confidence remains high across most parts of the industry, including the production end where seasonal conditions and overall historical market prices have never been more favourable,” Mr Bignell said.