Cattle and lamb prices continue to fall as producers shift stock

Big falls have been recorded in cattle and lamb markets as big yardings pressured demand, and hopes thin for a lift this week.

Prices for both cattle and lamb have both trended lower this past week as many producers in the south move to offload further, and yardings jumped up on all categories.

In the past week trade lambs have fallen 20c/kg to sit at 768c/kg, and heavy lambs are down by a similar rate, to 780c/kg, representing a 35c/kg fall in a month.

On cattle, the benchmark Eastern Young Cattle Indicator is 20c/kg weaker this week, tracking at 641c/kg and processor cows have fallen away by 30c/kg in a month to 268c/kg.

And in the nation’s north, although big rain is forecast across pastoral country this week, analysts are tipping processors and feedlots will welcome any slowing in cattle supply and the “breathing space”.

StoneX Australian livestock and commodities manager Ripley Atkinson said he did not expect big northern rain to materially impact cattle prices this week, given feedlots were full and there was little incentive to push prices higher.

“Markets also don’t like uncertainty (as was the case now with potential US tariffs coming in next month) so that makes it hard for processors and exporters to plan their buineess,” he said.

However, he doesn’t think potential tariffs were directly influencing physical livestock markets yet — they were being driven more by local supply and demand of livestock.

Looking back on the year so far, with the exception of good weaner sales in the south, the cattle market had been “lack lustre”, Mr Atkinson said, and without “anything to get too excited about”. He said there was a plentiful supply of cattle, and that while quality was likely to hold up well, secondary quality stock or those lacking weight, particularly in heifers, were “likely to cop it”.

“Quality will define returns this year,” he said.

On potential US tariffs being brought in on Australian beef and lamb, Mr Atkinson said it was likely the impacts would flow through into all segments, given the diversity of products that Australia sells to that country.

“And, 70 per cent of our exports to the US are frozen trim, and if tariffs come on, that will force processors to drop their grids while they reconfigure their sales programs.”

On the lamb outlook, Newbold Sheep studs principal Bill Close from Gawler River, SA, said while SA was suffering through its driest 15 months on record, he remained optimistic about the outlook.

“Although Trump may affect US sales, I think the demand from the UK and Europe will support any drops in product going to the US,” Mr Close said.

“Sheep numbers are also down in New Zealand and in the UK also.

“In SA ewe numbers are down but demand is still there, and from the domestic market, althought it may be a different story in NSW where they have had a better season.”