Beef producers more positive than 12 months ago

An MLA survey has found beef producer’s sentiment is significantly more positive than 12 months ago. But some say prices still need to lift to be sustainable.

John and Liz Craig from Hamilton sold Hereford heifers to 344c/kg at Hamilton on Thursday which was better than last year’s prices.

Beef producer sentiment has grown by 36 per cent in the past year.

According to the latest Beef Producer Intentions Survey from Meat and Livestock Australia, optimism and confidence in the beef sector has grown.

The survey, which is run three times a year collected data between October and December 2024 from 3483 producers.

It found nett positive industry sentiment has lifted to 47 per cent this survey, up from 34 per cent in April 2024 and 11 per cent from the 2023 survey.

In the survey breakdown, 56 per cent of producers were positive about the next 12 months, 31 per cent were neutral and 9 per cent had a negative outlook.

Producer sentiment has lifted across all states, with Queensland’s positive sentiment at 59 points, compared to 26 points in November 2023, NSW at 51 points compared to 7 points and Victoria at 43 points compared to 13 points.

MLA market information manager Stephen Bignell said strong sentiment between states reflects the better conditions and prices contributing to the improved outlook.

With an estimate of 28.51 million adult grass-fed cattle on hand on October 31, 2024, producers have an overall intention to increase their beef cattle herds in the next 12 months.

The survey showed 45 per cent indicated they would increase their herd size, 16 per cent would remain unchanged and 39 per cent would decrease their size.

“While the results do not indicate producers have all shifted to a rebuild focus, there has been a noticeable shift away from herd reductions,” Mr Bignell said.

When asked about their reasons for the expected increase in herd, 36 per cent of producers cited restocking or rebuilding, 30 per cent said expanding operations, 26 per cent said expectations of good seasonal conditions and 18 per cent cited expectations of strong market conditions.

Beef producer John Craig from Hamilton said prices are better than 12 months ago, but they needed to improve more to be sustainable.

Mr Craig was a bit surprised to get 344c/kg for 308kg heifers at Hamilton’s weaner sale on Thursday, which was a bit above expectations on the current market.

While his prices were the best Hereford heifer price at the sale, and similar to Angus cattle at the same weight, Mr Craig said with costs rising, breeders needed higher returns.

“They sold OK, but really it is just a sense of relief to have them gone; it has been so dry down here,” he said.

“Prices are better than 12 months ago, but really to be profitable and sustainable we need calves to be making $1500-$2000, not $1000-$1500.

“Costs have all gone up and the job really need to kick $300-$500 a head more to get us back to where we were three to four years ago.

“It’s nothing against backgrounders, they need to make money too, but it is just where it has to be to make it sustainable.”