WASDE report: global wheat production set for a high, decline for Australia

Global wheat production could reach record levels but Australia’s output is expected to take a significant hit. Find out why.

Global wheat production is tipped to reach a record 808.5 million tonnes in 2025-26 — but concerns have been raised about Australia’s output, which is projected to decline.

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report highlights dry conditions across southern Australia as a contributing factor to the anticipated decrease in wheat production.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences forecasts an 11 per cent drop in Australia’s wheat production for the 2025-26 season, totalling 30.5 million tonnes. This is a significant screase from the 34.1 million tonnes produced in the 2024-25 season.

The dry season is affecting regions from Western Australia through southern NSW, South Australia and Victoria has led to lower-than-expected plantings. The Grains Industry of Western Australia Crop Report has revised the state’s overall plantings to 8.673 million hectares compared to 8.81 million hectares last month.

In the breakdown of crop commodities for the May report, West Australian farmers are forecast to plant;

● 4.07 million hectares of wheat;

● 1.92 million hectares of barley;

● 1.73 million hectares of canola;

● 365,000 hectares of oats;

● 495,000 hectares of lupins, and;

● 93,000 hectares of pulses.

Western Australian farmer Simon Wallwork of Corrigin in the central wheat belt. Picture: Supplied

Western Australian farmer Simon Wallwork, based at Corrigin in the central wheat belt, said conditions had been patchy but he was fortunate to receive 40-80mm of rainfall across his property since March.

“We probably have about a day left of sowing,” he said.

His enterprise consists of about one-third canola, 15 per cent wheat, with the majority being barley.

While many farmers are nearing the end of their planting programs, others in the north have adopted a cautious approach due to the dry and unseasonably warm conditions.

Ian Foster, principal research scientist at the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development in Western Australia, said there was a stark contrast in rainfall between the northern and southern parts of the state.

“Estimated root-zone soil water storage is higher than normal for the South West and South Coast, and below normal for the northern agricultural area,” he said.

In Victoria, concerns persist about the season’s outlook. Victorian Farmers Federation grains group president Ryan Milgate remains hopeful for a late break.

“If we look back to 2016, it was a really dry season, like this one, and then it turned out to be a record year,” Mr Milgate said.

Despite the crop projections there has been no immediate impact on domestic prices, although there is demand for feed barley.

“I am seeing prices of $347 (a tonne) ex-farm for feed barley,” he said.

Mr Milgate is about 65 per cent through sowing of the winter crop on his property and is making good progress.

“We will be done in a couple of weeks.”