Record area for winter crop, but production revised down

Australia is set to sow a 24.5 million hectare winter crop despite tough conditions in parts of the country, but production has been revised down.

Forecasting shows Australia is set to sow a 24.5 million hectare winter crop, despite parts of Victoria and South Australia being still uncharacteristically dry.

If accurate, the figure will be a 0.8 per cent increase on last year and could also be a new record.

Figures from Rabobank’s recently published 2025-26 Australian Winter Crop Outlook show there is some positive movement in Queensland and northern NSW.

However, overall planting in South Australia are tipped to decrease by 5.8 per cent due to drought.

Rabobank’s senior analyst grains and oilseeds Vitor Pistoia said in the commodity breakdown wheat planting was set to drop 5.2 per cent, however, barley could experience a 9.8 per cent increase and pulses were tipped to be up to 12.5 per cent higher.

Market share from the commodities:

● Wheat down 5.2 per cent

● Barley up 9.8 per cent

● Pulses up 12.5 per cent

● Canola steady

Forecasts for each state:

● Queensland an increase of 8.4 per cent

● Western Australia an increase of 2.1 per cent

● NSW an increase of 1.6 per cent

● Victoria an increase of 0.1 per cent.

● South Australia a decrease of 5.8 per cent

Although more area is being planted, the total crop forecast was down, mainly due to seasonal conditions, with an outlook of 53.9 million tonnes compared to 59.7 million tonnes last year.

South Australian farmer Mark Schilling. Picture: Sarah Reed

South Australian farmer Mark Schilling of Cunliffe said it was dry last year, and it was dry this year, but he was continuing on with dry sowing despite the conditions.

He is growing a 50:50 split of cereals and lentils and said even if he could get some rainfall between now and the end of the year, it would be of benefit and there was room for optimism.

Mr Schilling said from what he was seeing in Australia, people were planting and perhaps the total area might not be down by as much as the report suggested.

“We are about two-thirds of the way through sowing and we have had some little dribs and drabs of rainfall, 2mm to 6mm here and there and a couple of weeks ago some paddocks were lucky enough to jag 20mm after a thunderstorm,” he said.

In terms of a seasonal break, Mr Schilling said there was still time.

“We still have another month before it becomes diabolical,” he said.

Stewart Hamilton of Inverleigh. Picture: Chloe Smith.

Western Districts farmer Stewart Hamilton of Inverleigh agreed that the season in his area was very similar to last year.

“I know a few people have wound back on canola ... we are still marching forward with our plan at this stage,” he said.

Mr Hamilton was two-thirds to three-quarters of the way through sowing.

“We have had some staggered germination for our canola, and that is not great,” he said.

“We certainly need a significant rainfall event by the end of the month.”

The Rabobank report also pointed to pricing outlooks with wheat forecast to range from $330 to $320 a tonne, barley $290 to $340 a tonne and canola $700 to $780 a tonne.