Growers say bumper ABARES forecast doesn’t match reality

Growers say a bumper forecast for Victorian crops doesn’t match reality. See what yields six Mallee grain growers are reporting.

As harvest gets underway across Victoria, growers say a bumper government outlook for crops production doesn’t match reality.

The latest Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences crop forecast, released on Tuesday, has predicted a 5.3 million tonne wheat harvest across the state — a big increase on its September estimate of 4.3 million tonnes.

Barley harvest was expected to come in at 2.9 million tonnes, up from a 2.5 million tonne September forecast, and canola was predicted at 1.4 million tonnes, up from 1.3 million tonnes.

But Grain Producers Australia southern region director Andrew Weidemann said that picture didn’t match what he was seeing on farms.

“I don’t think (ABARES) really have a good handle on what’s happening at the farm gate,” he said.

“This year, there are areas that have completely been flogged by rain, there is ground that people still won’t be able to get on until January for harvest.

“This year there is a lot of biomass out there, but the reality is, a lot of that biomass has nothing in it. And if there is something in it, that’s very low quality because of the way the rainfall events have impacted on it.

“Yes, there are areas where there’ll be record crops and record grain. But whether that’ll make up the differential, I think it’s too hard to predict.”

According to the ABARES report, crop losses due to flooding were incorporated into the crop forecast.

“Although there are reports of crop losses across many parts of Victoria due to

persistent waterlogging, it is unclear how severe and widespread these concerns are. As a result, the full extent of crop lost in Victoria is uncertain, presenting further downside risk for this forecast,” the report said.

In October, before torrential November rain and hailstorms lashed crops, the Grain Industry Association of Victoria estimated record barley yields for the Mallee of 5.13t/ha, and wheat yields for the Mallee of 3.52t/ha — both about double average yields in 2021.

As headers start moving across paddocks in the state’s north west, the results tell a different story. Merrinee grower Chris Hunt’s barley was delivering about three tonnes to the hectare after a hailstorm knocked his yield potential down by about 30 per cent. In Lascelles, near Sea Lake, grower Darren Mott reported a 75 per cent loss on his barley after heavy hail.

Wheat yields were still too early to predict, but growers in the state’s Wimmera region have reported heavy yield losses as a result of shrivelled grains as a result of fusarium head blight and stripe rust. Mr Weidemann said it was too early to say how widespread the disease was.

As of Monday, 700,000 tonnes of grain had been delivered to GrainCorp silos across Victoria.

Darren Mott’s crops were hit with hail. Photo: Glenn Milne

Darren Mott, Lascelles

After weathering torrential rain in October, Darren Mott was coming close to a personal record harvest when a hailstorm hit his Lascelles property in November.

“It is a bit overwhelming. It would have been the best crop we’d had in years,” he said.

The storm hit the entire property, knocking out windows in his house and damaging wheat, barley, lentils, lupins, and canola crops.

Mr Mott, who was luckily insured against hail, has estimated a 75 per cent yield loss on his barley.

Harvest progress on the 3700ha property has been “very slow”, but Mr Mott said he was having a better experience than some of his neighbours.

“We’ve been bogged for four or five or six hours before we got the machine out. It is pretty draining.”

But he was trying to stay positive. “It is what it is. As the weeks go by, some of the areas will dry and we’ll go back and get it.”

John Ferrier at Birchip has started harvesting canola. PICTURED: John Ferrier with 3yo grandson Darcy. PICTURE: ZOE PHILLIPS

John Ferrier, Birchip

John Ferrier’s property at Birchip was hit with heavy storms in the lead up to harvest, but yield potential was still looking positive.

“There’s certainty been some wind and rain damage, but we’re still quite happy with yields.

Average yields in direct-headed canola were sitting at about 2.8t/ha, after losing between 15 to 20 per cent of their potential from heavy rain and storms.

Oil quality in the crop was high after a cool finish, averaging above 48 per cent — higher than the 42 per cent required to pay a premium.

Yield and quality in cereal and lentil crops remained an unknown.

“The lentils look good, but we won’t know what the yield is like until we’re able to harvest,” Mr Ferrier said.

Chris Hunt on his property at Merrinee in December. Photo: Glenn Milne

Chris Hunt, Merrinee

Chris Hunt, who grows barley, wheat and field peas, has had a good year on his property at Merrinee, despite late season storms.

Barley yields on the property could be down by up to 30 per cent this year due to weather and head retention.

“Before the wind started and the rain in mid November, (barley) was close to four tonnes (per hectare). But I think we’ll be down around the three tonne average by the time we’re done,” Mr Hunt said.

Wheat also had record potential at “north of 3.5 tonnes (per hectare)”.

“It’s the best average we’ve ever grown,” Mr Hunt said.

Field peas were also yielding above average at 2.8 tonnes to the hectare.

Rick Lang is harvesting at Nareewillock with his daughters Caitlin and Danielle. PICTURED: L-R Caitlin, Rick and Danielle Lang harvesting canola. PICTURE: ZOE PHILLIPS

Rick Lang, Nareewillock

Wheat, barley, canola and lentil grower Rick Lang has managed an impressive canola crop this year despite one section of his Nareewillock property being “chewed up a bit” by a late season hailstorm.

Mr Lang was direct heading canola late last week, where it was yielding an average of 3.6 tonnes to the hectare — a big increase on the already-impressive 3t/ha yield average from 2021.

The cool finish to the season has produced a high oil content of 46 per cent.

Other crops on the 3500ha property hadn’t been so lucky, with a portion of the lentils on the property washed out by wet weather.

Nigel Charles on his property at Bambil in December. Photo: Glenn Milne

Nigel Charles, Bambil

After a slow start to harvest and days dodging wet patches and pausing for rain, Bambil grower Nigel Charles has finally had a consistent week of harvest.

Despite some losses from hail, barley on the property was yielding about double the property’s long term average at 3 tonnes to the hectare.

Wheat was also expected to deliver “at least” 2.5t/ha — an above average yield.

Daniel Keam pictured in his canola crop at Wallup in September. Photo: supplied

Daniel Keam, Wallup

It has been a mixed year for canola, barley, wheat and lentil farmer Daniel Keam at Wallup.

This year’s canola crop on Mr Keam’s Wallup property has achieved personal record yields of 3.5t/ha and high oil content of up to 45 per cent.

“We’ve stripped 2.5’s and 2.7’s but to have an average of 3.5 is pretty much unheard of,” he said.

But the story was less positive for wheat, which was heavily affected by disease.

“Wheat looked like it was filling in the last three weeks and then the guys have had a look at it, and it’s actually shrivelled.

“I wouldn’t be game to put a (yield) estimate on it.”

The majority of the lentil crops on the property were washed out, while barley was looking OK. “If it’s not malt, it would be a feed1 (quality),” he said.