Flat grain prices combine with a dry start to winter sowing

Wheat and barley prices are still flat despite a dry start to the season and some cautious optimism about a late break.

Traditional market metrics of higher prices and less crop in a dry year may not play out for the two main cropping staples of wheat and barley.

While farmers are optimistic and say they are hoping for a late seasonal break, the pricing structure is lacklustre, especially if wheat and barley are not accompanied by high yields.

New crop prices for wheat are tracking at $360 a tonne, and barley is $330 a tonne. Meanwhile, canola has surged to $800 a tonne. But farmers say that with a late break, canola is still risky for them to grow.

Ian McColl from Koorawatha in NSW said the canola price was good, but it wasn’t quite so good for wheat and barley.

“We have missed out on the rain here that came through some of the neighbouring parts a couple of weeks ago,” he said.

“The majority of farmers are now dry sowing.”

However, a late seasonal break meant farmers were concerned that there could be a yield discount for the 2025 crop.

“I am hoping this is a late break and not a drought,” he said.

“It is always a risk when you are sowing a crop, and have high input costs, and you are sowing into zero moisture ... that is challenging,” he said.

Mr McColl said running a zero-till operation had been a saving grace for conserving any available soil moisture on his property.

“We fortunately still have some ground cover,” he said.

Ryan Milgate, of Minyip hopes to see an autumn break soon. Picture: Yuri Kouzmin

Market Check chief executive Nick Crundall said the market was looking subdued for wheat and barley but better for canola.

He said wheat and barley prices were not reacting to the dry season because there was currently carry-over stock on hand.

“We are seeing very little encouragement with (forward) selling the new crop at this point, the price isn’t good enough,” he said.

Mr Crundall said this time of the year, which coincided with spring in the northern hemisphere, often reflected a degree of market volatility.

“Domestically there has been a poor start to the season for anyone south of Dubbo (NSW),” he said.

New-crop wheat prices were $360 to $365 a tonne in Victoria.

“That is not a huge price unless you are going to get the yield to back it up,” he said.

Barley prices had benefited from Chinese export demand and the current quote for new-crop was $330 a tonne.

Victorian Farmers Federation grains group president and Minyip farmer Ryan Milgate said he was about 25 per cent of the way through winter sowing. He hoped to have the majority of planting finished within two weeks.

Despite the fact it was dry, he said it was often the case that a seasonal break came through during late May in his area.

“We need to see grain prices higher because of the risks; our input costs are just going up and up,” he said.

“I am not looking at forward selling; the focus is getting it in the ground.”

Mr Milgate will sow vetch and oats for hay, barley, lentils, and wheat. Canola has been left out of the rotation this year.