Cautious optimism for 2024 crops

There’s a feeling of optimism among cropping leaders as they look to the 2024 winter season. See the season preview here.

Bountiful summer rain has provided optimism for cropping farmers preparing to sow the 2024 winter crop.

Figures from the Bureau of Meteorology for the past three months show 328.2mm has fallen at Maffra, 252.8 at Wangaratta, 224.1mm at Echuca, 220.6mm at Nhill and 127.6mm at Birchip.

Grain Producers Australia southern director Andrew Weidemann of Rupanyup said everyone was feeling quite positive.

“We have had half of our annual rainfall since the start of December,” he said.

The rain had provided excellent subsoil moisture. However, plenty of weed control was still needed.

Grain Producers Australia chairman Andrew Weidemann.

Mr Weidemann said he anticipated reasonable potential for prices in 2024. However, canola returns were diminishing.

Canola prices are tracking at $602/tonne in Victoria this week, and if values fall further, it could impact how much growers choose to plant in terms of area in 2024.

“I think we are going to see a mirroring of overseas values; prices will have a three in front of them rather than a four,” he said.

“Canola has been a letdown,” he said.

Conversely, Mr Weidemann tipped that lentils would be the crop people might chase or grow in larger areas during the 2024 season. Lentils were a strong performer last season.

The current nugget lentil price in Victoria is $935/tonne.

He said summer crops are showing some positive signs, with irrigated corn around Shepparton and Yarrawonga performing well at this stage of the season.

“The crops there look magnificent,” he said.

Mr Weidemann said sourcing inputs would continue to be a challenge.

International events, including the conflict in the Red Sea, were also affecting Australian markets, and the future outcomes as a result of this was difficult to predict.

Key Agri Services grain broker and director Ben Shannon of Gundagai in southern NSW said solid rainfall totals had fuelled enthusiasm.

He said heading into the 2024 growing season contrasted with this time last year when farmers were bracing for El Nino conditions.

“Now we potentially have a La Nina coming at us,” he said.

“Realistically, it is shaping up really well, and we have the potential for a good season,” he said.

However, he conceded the area of canola planted throughout the western regions of NSW was likely to be diminished unless there was an autumn break or decent soil moisture in April.

Mr Shannon also tipped more pulse planting.

“I think we will see more chickpeas and fava beans; they were both very well priced at the end of 2023,” he said.

Faba beans were making around $440 to $470/tonne, and chickpeas were tracking at $750 to $900/tonne.

Craig Henderson on his property at Berriwillock in Victoria. Picture: David Geraghty

Victorian Farmers Federation grains group president and Berriwillock farmer Craig Henderson said input costs were still high.

There were also supply chain challenges, including whether the roads were in a good state of repair or if there was streamlined access to ports.

On a positive note, he said more machinery was starting to flow into retailers now after some earlier shortages.

He said farmers were still faced with the labour shortage and finding staff.

Regarding the climatic outlook, Mr Henderson said he was cautiously optimistic. This year, he will grow wheat, barley, lentils, oaten hay, and vetch on his property for the winter cropping season.