Australian Winter Crop Outlook: Victoria’s winter crop falls

Victoria’s winter crop area is forecast to be down by 0.1 per cent versus the five-year average. It is the only state to show a fall, despite fickle weather conditions in other regions, especially WA.

Victoria’s winter crop area is forecast to be down by 0.1 per cent versus the five-year average.

This is the message from the latest Australian Winter Crop Outlook released by Rabobank this week.

Victoria is the only state to show a fall in hectares despite fickle weather conditions in other regions, especially Western Australia.

The most significant drop will be in canola with the report indicating the sowing area has plummeted by 12.7 per cent amounting to a reduction of 450,000 hectares with a total area of 3.11 million hectares.

Grain Producers Australia president Barry Large, of Miling, Western Australia. Picture: Supplied

Grain Producers Australia chairman Barry Large, of Miling in Western Australia said he expected the overall fall in canola could be far greater than what the report forecast.

He said vast amounts of land intended for canola planting had been completely left out in Western Australia.

The dry conditions at the sowing time meant it needed to be more viable for Western Australian growers.

“I think the 12 per cent figure is optimistic. It is likely to be down a lot more than that,” he said.

However, he believed barley planting would be increased with growers showing more confidence in that crop.

Australian Oilseeds Federation chief executive Nick Goddard.

Australian Oilseeds Federation chief executive Nick Goddard said canola planting was down due to the dry conditions.

Conversely, there were better seasonal conditions in northern NSW, and hopefully, growers would make up some of the shortfall from these regions.

“The good thing is we should see a better run in prices; canola pricing in the past six to eight weeks has improved,” he said.

The report is forecasting a total winter crop area of 23.55 million hectares which is up by more than three per cent compared to 2023. From the planting area it is estimated farmers will produce a total yield of 46.3 million tonnes.

RaboResearch analyst and report author Vitor Pistoia said it was a tale of two coasts with a better start to early sowing in the east but dry conditions in Western Australia.

HOW THE COMMODITIES FARE

●Overall the area sown to wheat is tipped to increase by 7.7 per cent (961,000ha) higher than last year to 13.48 million hectares

●Canola is forecast to shrink 12.7 per cent (450,000 hectares) to 3.11 million hectares with an output of 5 million tonnes

●Barley will likely expand with an estimated 5.1 per cent (210,000 hectares) increase on last year’s planting to 4.33 million hectares and yield potential of 10 million tonnes

●Oats will represent an increase of 12,000ha to a total of 0.7 million hectares and a yield of 0.96 million tonnes

●Pulses were set for an acreage growth of 5.2 per cent year-on-year to 1.93 million hectares with a yield of 2.8 million tonnes

The report stated the 2024/25 season is likely to mark the fifth consecutive season of dwindling global ending stocks for wheat.

Dry weather and frost in the Black Sea region had tilted the supply and demand balance for wheat towards a positive price cycle.

Rabobank forecasts APW Australian Premium White port prices for wheat to range between $360 and $390 a tonne.

For barley, prices are likely to be sustained by improved cattle prices and red meat export opportunities.

Feed barley was quoted at $350 to $370 a tonne at East Coast ports and $320 to $340 at Western Australia and South Australia.

Australian non-GM canola port prices were forecast at $680 and $720.

Victorian Farmers Federation grains group president and Berriwillock farmer Craig Henderson said the crop outlook wasn’t surprising given the seasonal conditions.

“Things are pretty constant,” he said. Mr Henderson said he expected canola planting to be back because of the later seasonal break.

“People have pulled canola from their rotation,” he said.

Mr Henderson said most Victorians had now finished sowing and had welcomed recent rain in the past week.