Slim margins between wheat and barley forecasts

Gross margins for canola, wheat and barley have been forecast for 2024-25. We break down the prices farmers need to know.

Wheat is set to return a 1 per cent gross margin win over its counterpart, barley, for the 2024-25 cropping season.

Rabobank’s report, Australia’s winter crop gross margins, analysed the data and had wheat at a 34 per cent gross margin, with barley just 1 per cent behind at 33 per cent.

Wheat is projected to provide a margin of $281/ha in 2024-25, and barley was at $282/ha. Despite the $1 higher amount for barley, the gross margin considered overall production costs, with the two grains almost on parity.

Jason Mellings, who farms at Carron between Donald and Warracknabeal, said that from his perspective, barley was easier to grow and could “hang on better” during a dry finish.

He plans to keep the rotations the same when planting starts in the second week of April. Since harvest last year, his property has received 130mm of rain, and subsoil moisture was currently considered good.

Prices for barley were still around $310 to $320 a tonne, depending on where it was delivered. Mr Mellings will grow wheat, barley and canola this year. However, he has reduced the amount of canola due to the lower price.

According to the report, released last week, the gross margin for canola in 2024-25 was forecast at $251/ha, an increase from last year’s result of $158/ha, but it is still behind wheat and barley.

Dan Fox from Marrar in southern NSW said barley was considered a crop that doesn’t disappoint farmers.

Barley pictured before harvest. Picture: Zoe Phillips

“Last year, we had a tight finish, which suited barley more than wheat,” he said.

Mr Fox said he would stick to his rotations based on what worked agronomically.

“Mother nature reminds us that she is the boss and a lot of the time, we don’t know what will be thrown up at us,” he said.

Overall, he anticipated doubling the area of barley compared to last year, and he was also increasing the planting of oats.

“Canola has taken a bit of a hit because of the price,” he said.

This year Mr Fox will grow canola and faba beans as a multispecies crop.

RaboResearch grain and oilseed analyst Vitor Pistoia said the hectares of wheat to be planted in the upcoming season were forecast to remain above 12 million ha, equivalent to 55 per cent of the winter cropping area.

The area sown to barley was forecast to stay above four million ha.