African Swine Fever: How this virus could impact red meat
Coronavirus may have hogged the limelight for much of 2020. But an almost-forgotten virus could prove disruptive for the global livestock industry in the new year.
CORONAVIRUS may have hogged the limelight this year, but its is African swine fever that is tipped to be a key factor driving the livestock industry next year, both in Australia and abroad.
However, Australia’s post-drought herd recovery could hamper the livestock industry’s ability to capitalise on the global protein deficit created by African swine fever.
A recent Rabobank Global Animal Protein outlook report for next year forecast China’s recovery from the impact of African Swine Fever as a key driver of growth across the global animal protein sector.
Rabobank senior animal protein analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said growth in production across many animal protein markets globally was forecast for next year.
He said African swine fever was still active, with an outbreak in Germany in September.
“Pork production is expected to grow faster than its protein counterparts in 2021, driven by the ASF recovery in China and Vietnam, while poultry and aquaculture are also expected to grow, based on post-COVID-19 improvements to food service,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
According to the report, China’s domestic pork herd is entering a rebuild phase, after dropping dramatically last year due to the virus.
AuctionsPlus chief market analyst Tim McRae said African swine fever had greatly reduced the volume of protein in global markets this year, and would continue to do so.
“I think for the Australian industry, it’s going to be the supply of cattle that will be the big determinant of cattle going overseas,” Mr McRae said.
“If we see a rebuild, and historically a rebuild can take three to five years … we’re sitting about three million head of cattle less than we were 10 years ago, and to capitalise in a volume sense may be difficult if we are in a rebuild phase.
“With the Australian dollar, there may be the ability to capitalise in a value sense.”
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