Eyes on Queensland for official start to rebuild
Restockers have recently been snapping up cattle at a rate of knots. But data shows we’re not officially in a rebuild. Here's why Queensland will play an important role in coming months.
AUSTRALIA’s herd is still going backwards with a genuine rebuild hinged on the success of Queensland’s wet season.
While producers throughout the eastern states are snapping up stock as quickly as they can, the latest slaughter figures show the country is still yet to enter an official herd rebuild phase.
This trend bodes well for southern producers with young cattle to sell over the summer.
The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics livestock slaughter figures showed 1.7 million cattle were slaughtered in the June to September quarter, a 9.6 per cent reduction on the previous quarter.
However Meat and Livestock Australia market information manager Steve Bignell said female cattle slaughter rates were still sitting at 53 per cent, a 3 per cent reduction on last quarter, and down 3 per cent on the same time last year.
But the female cattle slaughter rate was yet to reach 47 per cent, the traditional market signal for an official herd rebuild.
AuctionsPlus chief market analyst Tim McRae said once the slaughter figure reached “that mid-40 per cent, that’s a strong indication producers are holding back numbers”.
“With drought in about 56 per cent of Queensland, we’re not going to be in a rebuild.”
Mr McRae said all eyes would be on QLD in coming months, as it eagerly awaited forecast rainfall.
“We’d have to see some real improved conditions in Queensland to see that female (slaughter) number drop,” Mr McRae said.
Meanwhile. Mr Bignell said all red meat slaughters for last quarter — sheep, goats, and cattle — were down on the September 2019 quarter, which was “indicative of what we predicted and what we expected, that people are holding on to stock”.
According to ABS, the number of sheep slaughtered recorded a 9.8 per cent drop on last quarter to 1.2 million. All red meat slaughter rates were down, with male slaughter rates down 1 per cent on last quarter and 15 per cent down on same time last year. Total female slaughter was down 11 per cent on last quarter.
“The interesting thing will be La Nina. Obviously Queensland has such a portion of the cattle herd … if the early La Nina comes through we will definitely move into that rebuild phase in a more pronounced way,” Mr Bignell said.
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