Victoria gains grain mantle

Victoria is the grain bowl of Australia this year, as much of the nation struggles through drought.

National winter crop production predictions for 2019-20. Source: Rural Bank

LAST year Western Australia was the nation’s grain-production powerhouse. This year, it is Victoria’s turn.

But, such is the state of a national harvest beset by drought, Victoria will do so by producing a “close to average” crop.

“In contrast to anywhere else in Australia, Victorian production is on average,” says Rabobank senior grains and oilseeds analyst Dr Cheryl Kalisch Gordon. “Victoria will be the grain bowl of Australia this year.”

Rural Bank data indicates the 2019-20 winter-crop production for Victoria will be eight million tonnes – a massive 111 per cent increase on last year’s 3.8 million tonnes.

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Victoria’s crop is being lifted by above-average crops in the central Mallee and southern Mallee regions despite a dry spring, Rural Bank agribusiness manager Greg Kuchel says.

Rural Bank predicts West Australian production will be 40 per cent down on last year’s bumper crop of 18.3 million tonnes. WA is expected to produce just 10.97 million tonnes this year.

In the north, and despite the continuing dry, Queensland will produce 525,000 tonnes of grain, a 5 per cent increase from 500,000 tonnes last year.

And even NSW, which has been hardest hit by drought, production should hit three million tonnes, a 15 per cent increase on last year’s meagre 2.6 million tonnes. South Australia’s production should be six million tonnes, a 13 per cent jump on last year’s 5.3 million tonnes.

Rural Bank says the national winter crop for 2019-20 will be 28.5 million tonnes, a 7 per cent drop on last year’s 30.5 million tonne crop.

Kuchel says Western Australia is expected to resume grains exports after this year having to move much of its harvest volumes to the struggling east coast. “Last year Western Australia moved three million tonnes to the east,” Kuchel says.

NSW and Queensland will instead turn to Victoria to shore up their grain supplies.