African swine fever threatens Australian pork industry

Australian Pork Limited researchers estimate African swine fever could cost the nation billions if an outbreak were to occur here.

The global pork industry is reeling from African swine fever. Picture: Sebastien St-Jean/AFP

AFRICAN swine fever is estimated to have already killed 200 million of the world’s pigs.

And if an outbreak of swine fever occurred in Australia, Australian Pork Limited research estimates the likely economic impact would be up to $2.03 billion over five years.

However, Australian Pork Limited chief executive Margo Andrae says that is a “conservative” estimate.

While the fever can’t infect humans, Andrae says the flow-on social impacts in the community are hard to measure.

The research used two outbreak scenarios to come up with the data.

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In the event of a small, single-point outbreak within a small number of piggeries, and contained within four weeks, recovery would take one year, and the indirect and direct costs from an outbreak would be between $667 million and $877 million.

If an outbreak was large, in multiple piggeries across the eastern seaboard, and contained within three months, recovery would take 36 months and cost between $1.5 billion and $2.03 billion.

“Not only is our pork supply at stake but the jobs of 36,000 Australians are at risk,” Andrae says.

“We’ve never seen a virus like this, no one knows what that means for the future and what impact it will have on the global protein market.”

While African swine fever is not yet in Australia, it has been reported just 650km away in Timor Leste, as well as in about 50 nations, including China, Cambodia, North Korea, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines.

In China, where the virus broke out last year, more than 100 million pigs have already died or been destroyed. A recent Rabobank report estimated China’s pig herd loss would reach 55 per cent, or more than 200 million pigs, by the end of this year.