Labor, Coalition neck-and-neck, as gap narrows between Andrews and Guy

Voters have significantly cut their support for the Labor government before Saturday’s state election according to fresh polling that shows the major parties neck-and-neck on primary votes and Daniel Andrews losing ground to Matthew Guy as preferred premier.

An exclusive survey conducted by Resolve Strategic for The Age shows that, as the campaign enters its final days, the gap between the parties has dwindled. Labor’s primary vote has fallen by 7 percentage points since the last election to 36 per cent – making it level with the Coalition.

Nothing to celebrate yet: Premier Daniel Andrews visiting Brown Brothers Winery on Monday.Credit: AAP

Since Resolve’s last poll, conducted in late October, the Coalition’s primary vote has risen 5 percentage points from 31 per cent, while Labor’s primary vote, which was at 38 per cent, has dropped by 2 percentage points.

The gap between the major parties has also narrowed in two-party preferred terms. When voters were asked to name the parties that would receive their preferences, Labor was ahead 53 to 47 per cent, enough for Andrews to remain premier but significantly lower than the 59-to-41 split recorded in late October.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the election had become “much closer very quickly”, with Labor at risk of losing between eight and 12 seats if the poll’s findings are replicated on Saturday. Victoria could also be on the “cusp of minority” government, Reed said.

The narrowing of the gap between the major contenders comes as the Liberal Party received about a $1.5 million funding boost, which has fuelled an increase in its spending on crucial advertisements in the final moments of the campaign. A blackout on political advertising on radio and TV – but not social media – begins on Thursday.

The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed about 1000 Victorians from Wednesday to Sunday, with a margin for error of 3 per cent. It showed voters were firming in their views, with 86 per cent now committed to their vote.

The proportion of people surveyed who believe Labor will win has dropped by 7 percentage points since the last Resolve poll in October, from 62 per cent to 55 per cent. Slightly fewer than 20 per cent believe the Coalition will win, and 26 per cent are undecided or believe it is too close to call.

At the last election, the Andrews government won 55 of the 88 lower house seats, picking up once-safe Liberal seats in Melbourne’s east with a landslide 43 per cent primary vote.

Reed said the shift away from Labor was strongest in regional areas, particularly in the state’s east, as well as in outer suburbs in Melbourne’s west, but he added that some Labor-held seats with big margins may absorb heavy swings.

While statewide support for the Greens has slipped to 10 per cent from 12 per cent since the start of the campaign, the party has high hopes of winning the seats of Richmond, Northcote and Albert Park. Reed said 28 per cent of voters indicated they would support minor party or independent candidates, which would be a record high for a Victorian election.

Monash University associate professor Paul Strangio said Victoria had “an unpopular government and an unpopular opposition” and a hung parliament was possible, making preference flows crucial.

“The poll places the Andrews government in a position where if the trend against it continues, it is in danger of losing its majority,” Strangio said. “A 7 per cent decline in primary vote since 2018 constitutes a very sharp anti-government swing: it is in the vicinity of the swing Labor suffered when it lost office in 2010.

Matthew Guy, wife Renae and opposition energy spokesman David Southwick at a media event last week.Credit: Mark Stewart

“At the same time, the Coalition’s vote is only marginally ahead of where it was in 2018 and unless there is a further shift in its direction, it remains in a position where winning government is likely beyond its reach.”

While Andrews has an edge over Guy as preferred premier – Andrews is ahead 48 to 34 per cent – the opposition leader recorded his highest score since taking back the Liberal Party’s leadership in September 2021.

Reed said Andrews was proving to be a drag on Labor’s primary vote, with the premier losing support among voters on every key performance measure. The biggest drops were in the fields of communications, competence and trust.

“Initially, people who had slipped from Labor had gone to independents and the Greens, but during the campaign those votes have gone to the Liberals,” Reed said.

“The Liberals have garnered a lot of votes by being the place you go to get rid of Daniel Andrews.”

But with the Liberal and National coalition holding just 27 seats, Reed said it was a “struggle to see how the Coalition [could reach] an outright majority”.

As part of its research, Resolve Strategic also asks voters why they intend to support Labor or the Coalition. The survey found Victorians who supported the Andrews government felt Labor had kept them safe during the pandemic, with one respondent saying the government had “managed the pandemic well” and its policies had saved lives.

By contrast, voters supporting the Coalition did not overwhelmingly support Guy. “I’m frustrated with Daniel Andrews personally, angry over the extended lockdowns and concerned about ballooning debt,” one respondent said.

With 14 per cent of voters describing themselves as uncommitted, Reed said the final week of the campaign would be crucial, with the trend towards the Coalition at risk following revelations about the views of some of its candidates.

The Coalition has struggled to match Labor’s spending on TV, radio and social media advertisements, which strategists believe is key to winning over undecided voters.

But the opposition’s ability to push its message was significantly boosted in recent weeks by about $1.5 million from the Liberal Party’s fundraising arm, the Cormack Foundation.

It has allowed it to close the spending gap in the final fortnight of the campaign as many voters began to tune into the race. Most of the Coalition’s spending in the final week will aim to cast Andrews in a negative light and urge voters not to “let him get away with it”.

Cormack Foundation chiefs were initially reluctant to part with the millions needed by the Liberals to run a strong campaign.

But party sources said new Liberal president Greg Mirabella convinced its leaders the party’s campaign was coherent and worth investing in.

On Monday, Guy directly addressed voters he described as “disenchanted with Daniel Andrews but not yet sure if they might vote for me”.

“My message to you is very clear: we are safe, we are sensible, we’re centrist and mainstream,” he said.

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