Voters turn on major parties, but Labor retains election-winning lead

Support for Premier Daniel Andrews’ government has fallen over the past month as almost a third of Victorian voters express support for the Greens, minor parties or independents with a month to go until the state election.

Labor’s primary vote is down four points to 38 per cent and is sitting five points lower than it was for the “Danslide” victory in 2018, when it won 55 out of 88 seats. The Coalition has picked up some of Labor’s loss, getting a three-point boost, but it trails with a primary vote of 31 per cent, a four-point drop since 2018, when it suffered a humiliating election defeat.

Daniel Andrews is on track to win a third successive term and defeat Matthew Guy’s Coalition in the state election.Credit: The Age

The findings are part of a new Resolve Political Monitor survey, conducted exclusively for The Age by research company Resolve Strategic, which also reveals Victorians continue to reject the major parties, with 31 per cent of voters intending to support the Greens, minor parties or independent candidates in next month’s election – the same level as the Coalition’s primary vote.

However, preferences are flowing strongly back to Labor, who voters say have made mistakes but have strong leadership, with the government ahead 59 to 41 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis – pointing to a potential landslide next month.

If the two-party preferred vote is replicated on election day, the Coalition would be at risk of losing more seats. Monash University Associate Professor Paul Strangio said the data “paints an extraordinarily bleak picture for the Coalition”.

“[The Coalition’s] primary vote is also down since 2018 to a level where it is a long way short of being competitive in the coming election. Indeed, if that vote was replicated at November’s election the Coalition would likely lose seats,” he said.

The Victorian poll of more than 800 voters, taken from October 20 to 24, shows Andrews also leads Opposition Leader Matthew Guy as preferred premier by 49 per cent to 29, a slightly bigger margin than the last poll in September.

Resolve director Jim Reed said Andrews was in “pole position” to win a third term for Labor, and the government was “unlikely to go backwards” in terms of lower house seats.

“Andrews leads across a range of performance measures, and it’s quite significant,” Reed said.

“It’s pretty dire for the Coalition on that point. There is a value in being the underdog but a fine line between an underdog and just a dog.”

As part of its research, Resolve Strategic also asks voters the reasons why they support each party and their opinions of the two leaders. The survey found that Victorians broadly believed the Andrews government displayed strong leadership and had a track record of delivering on its election promises, even if it had made mistakes.

“Labor have made mistakes, but at least they have strong leadership. The Liberals aren’t capable at the moment,” one respondent said.

People who intended to vote for the Coalition told pollsters that the opposition was better at managing the economy, and Victoria needed a new government.

“It’s just time for a change. They’ve been there a while and it’s showing,” another respondent said.

With 29 days until election day, voters identified cost-of-living pressures as well as healthcare concerns as the most important issues impacting their vote, with economic management and jobs also at the front of voters’ minds.

Climate change and environmental concerns were more likely to influence the vote of Victorians living in marginal seats as well as voters searching for an alternative away from the major parties.

While Labor is on track to win, voters are expected to elect more independent candidates and Greens to the crossbench, with almost one in three voters intending to support candidates that aren’t aligned to the major parties.

Reed said that expectation was part of a broader pattern across Australia and likely to do more damage to the Coalition’s seat count, with the Liberal and National Parties forced to fend off independents in metropolitan electorates such as Kew, Brighton and Caulfield and win back regional seats such as Shepparton and Mildura from rural independents.

The survey also found that most respondents – 62 per cent – were confident Labor would win the election, irrespective of their own personal voting intentions, compared with just 17 per cent who expected the Coalition to win.

Reed said asking voters who they expected to win provided a “socialised measure” that considers the views of a wider group of the electorate, and it was often a more accurate way of predicting the result.

“Win expectation is often a much better indicator of outcome as it is often an indicator of performance,” Reed said.

The election will be held on November 26 with early voting available for eligible voters from November 14.

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