$1m-plus Tas suburbs: What your home could be worth in 2029

New data shows how sky-high home prices could be in five years, but there’s a catch. Search over 80 suburbs>>

The greater Hobart suburb with the largest 2019 to 2024 median price growth result was Primrose Sands, 92 per cent. Picture: Supplied

IMAGINE Tasmania having a higher median house price than Victoria.

This would be the result in the next five years if both state’s prices grow by the same percentage that they did between 2019 and 2024.

The latest PropTrack dataset shows Tasmania’s median house price shifted from $350,000 to $600,000 (71 per cent growth) in this time frame.

Meanwhile, Victoria’s uptick was from $605,000 to $775,000, or 28 per cent growth.

This would put Tassie at $1.028m and Victoria at $992,769 in 2029, the exclusive modelling shows.

Eleanor Creagh, PropTrack senior economist. Picture: Supplied

PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh said it was unlikely that the conditions of the last five years would be repeated.

However, she said the idea of a $1m median on the Apple Isle was not completely far-fetched.

“Over the long-term, we would expect house prices to continue to lift,” she said.

“So, I wouldn’t say it was unfeasible to see Hobart reach that level in 20 years. It’s possible.

“Keep in mind, strong growth before and during the pandemic has already meant that housing affordability has deteriorated significantly in Hobart.”

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PropTrack senior economist Paul Ryan said these figures are not forecasts, but “it’s a good thought exercise in understanding what we’ve seen over the past five years was so exceptional”.

Petrusma Property is seeking $575,000-plus for this two-bedroom New Norfolk home at No.2A Derwent Tce. Picture: Supplied

In the current market, No.8 Lantana Pl, Primrose Sands is priced at "Offers over $499,000". It's listed with Kate Storey Realty. Picture: Supplied

The data showed gigantic growth for greater Hobart, with the median house price increasing by $240,000 (52 per cent) in five years, while units zoomed $170,000 higher (47 per cent).

Outside of the city, regional Tasmania’s median value increased by $230,000 or 75 per cent (houses), and $170,000 (67 per cent) for units.

Mr Ryan said the data showed a “huge lift” in property values during a tumultuous time in the world (Covid), and with interest rates at “emergency low” levels.

He said Hobart was experiencing constrained supply in the wake of the pricing boom about 10 years ago.

“Many regions where we saw lots of building in the mid 2000s and 2010s — and clearly a bit of overbuilding — have finally absorbed that extra supply,” he said.

“Since the pandemic, there’s now undersupply there and huge demand.”

The Hobart suburbs with the largest five-year growth results were Primrose Sands (92 per cent), followed by Rokeby (88 per cent), New Norfolk (87 per cent), Bridgewater (71 per cent), and Midway Point (70 per cent). Five of the top 10 suburbs would have a median price above $1m if the same five-year growth was replicated. This includes Rokeby, Midway Point, Dodges Ferry, Austins Ferry and then Tranmere, which extrapolates out to over $1.8m.

Senior economist at PropTrack, Paul Ryan. Picture: Supplied.

Mr Ryan said the suburbs that experienced the most price growth were either in affordable areas, or possessed the lifestyle factor.

“If you look across the suburbs that have done the best over the past five years, they really hit those changes in preferences we’ve seen since the pandemic — one, towards lifestyle areas, and two, bigger blocks and houses,” he said.

“People are really valuing space in homes, and that hasn’t changed.”

Mr Ryan said this dataset shows just how much equity people have gained over the past five years and how it has enabled an enormous amount of upgrade activity.

“We’re seeing more people buying with larger deposits, which tells you people who are able to upgrade have seen those equity uplifts,” he said.

No.199 Mockridge Rd, Rokeby is on the market with Fall Real Estate, priced at $795,000-plus. Picture: Supplied

But Mr Ryan agrees with Ms Creagh that it is unlikely that the same pace of price growth would continue over the next five years.

“We’ll still see prices increasing over the next 12 months to two years because of the demand versus supply story and expectations that interest rates will fall maybe early to mid next year,” he said.

“Rates are still relatively high though, so we’re likely to see slightly below average growth over the next couple of years.”