Labor on track to win historic fourth election in Victoria, Coalition support falls to low point

The Coalition’s support has plummeted as a new poll suggests the Allan government will comfortably win next year’s election, delivering Labor a fourth successive term.

Support for the state Coalition is plummeting with a new poll showing just 38 per cent of Victorians back the party – five points less than when Brad Battin took over as leader in December.

The Redbridge polling, obtained exclusively by the Herald Sun, reveals if an election were held now, the Allan government would win comfortably, delivering Labor a historic fourth successive term.

The Allan government is on track to win the election, according to new Redbridge polling. Picture: Aaron Francis

Voters across all age groups, women, Christians and tertiary-educated voters are turning away from the Coalition amid the threat of another legal brawl over John Pesutto’s career saving $1.55m loan.

The party has also lost support among migrant voters and across the inner, middle and outer suburbs, with only regional voters getting behind it, suggesting its campaigning against the government’s new emergency services levy has at least had some cut-through.

After preferences are counted, Labor leads the Coalition by 51.5 to 48.5.

Less than eight months ago – just before Mr Pesutto was booted from the leadership – the Coalition was leading Labor 51 to 49 on a two party-preferred basis, putting it in an election-winning position with a primary vote of 43 its highest since 2017.

The Redbridge polling shows a dip in support for the Coalition.

The polling is expected to heap pressure on Mr Battin, intensifying ongoing talks about a potential leadership change ahead of next year’s election.

Before Mr Battin’s coup to wrestle the leadership from John Pesutto in the days after Christmas, the Coalition had been steadily improving its polling numbers for over a year despite the legal saga engulfing the then-leader.

But Coalition support has only gone backwards since the switch, despite Victoria’s worsening health system crisis, budget blowouts across major projects, record debt expected to hit $194bn by 2028-29, the threat of a damaging credit downgrade, youth crime and ongoing concerns about the infiltration of bikies on government worksites.

Mr Battin has conceded he has been forced to spend too much time on internal issues.

But he has now been dragged into a Supreme Court case as a defendant, with party members challenging a $1.55m loan made by the Liberal Party to Mr Pesutto.

Mr Battin has also faced criticism for going on a four-day cruise within three months of taking the top job and allowing the government to claw back ground on youth crime, announcing tough new bail laws and a crackdown on machetes before the Liberals could formulate any proposals.

And concerns have been raised about his deputy Sam Groth’s use of parliamentary allowances.

Support for the Coalition has only gone backwards since the leadership change to Brad Battin. Picture: Nadir Kinani

Voters are turning away from the Liberal Party thanks to the ongoing saga between former Liberal leader John Pesutto and fellow Liberal MP Moira Deeming. Picture: Nadir Kinani

The Redbridge poll of 1183 Victorian voters between June 19 and 30, shows just 26 per cent believe Mr Battin and the Coalition deserve to win the next election.

A similarly small number – 27 per cent – feel the Allan government has the right focus and priorities.

But in a worry for the Coalition, voters are returning to Labor with its primary vote improving 4 points to 33 since April.

Labor’s support is still well behind its 37 per cent in the 2022 state election, but Redbridge co-director Kos Samaras said the expected flow of preferences from minor parties would see the government re-elected if a vote was held now.

“Labor is racking up support in fast-growing urban electorates, within diverse Melbourne and highly educated constituencies,” he said.

“While the Coalition is piling up votes in ageing, shrinking seats they already hold.”

Fellow director and former Liberal Party strategist Tony Barry said: “The Victorian Liberals need to stop creating and chasing noise and start articulating an economic narrative underpinned with bold and differentiated policies,” he said.

“Jacinta Allan is starting to clean off some policy barnacles and getting her government back into the contest. In politics you measure desire to win by discipline and on that metric the Victorian Liberal Party seems to have negligible interest in winning.”

In a separate Newspoll, Labor holds a 53-47 per cent lead over the Liberal-National Party Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis.

The poll also found 59 per cent of Victorians believe Labor does not deserve to be re-elected.

Brad Battin says he is ‘not concerned at all’ about the latest polls. Picture: Nadir Kinani

Opposition Leader Brad Battin says he is “not concerned at all” about new polling which shows the Coalition is facing its fourth successive election defeat.

He said he was confident he would lead the party to the election and had time to convince Victorians the Coalition was ready to govern.

“Polls come and go and I’ve been working pretty hard each and every day and making sure the community is aware of what we are doing,” he said.

“We’ve already come out with policies particularly around crime in Victoria.

“We’ve already said we would cut taxes in this state with five taxes to go.

“We know that this government continues to try and make changes to keep up with the policies that we put forward.

“We are confident that when we get to the next election that we will be ready to govern.”

Mr Battin said he had a suite of housing policies yet to be announced to address the state’s housing crisis and promised new settings to boost investment in Victoria.

“We’ve already got a lot of good policies out there, we’ve got a lot more to go,” he said.

“Between now and the next election I’ll be sure to build up the confidence of each and every Victorian that we will have the opportunity to govern here in Victoria.”

Mr Battin said internal issues had continued to plague the party but said his team was ready to govern.

“We’ll make sure that our policies and our policy settings are ones people can have confidence will make Victoria a better place,” he said.

Originally published as Labor on track to win historic fourth election in Victoria, Coalition support falls to low point