Newspoll: Voters deeply unhappy with Jacinta Allan as Labor clings to lead

Victorians deliver Premier Jacinta Allan a vote of no confidence - but say they don’t believe the Liberal Party is ready to rule.

Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan, left, and Opposition Leader Brad Battin.

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An extraordinary 59 per cent of Victorians believe Labor does not deserve to be re-elected amid deep dissatisfaction with Premier Jacinta Allan, but the government is clinging to an election-winning lead, with a dysfunctional Liberal Party failing to win the trust of voters.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian reveals Labor holds a 53-47 per cent lead over the Liberal-National Party Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis, but that’s where the good news ends for the ALP, with the majority of voters believing it’s time to give another party a chance to govern.

And in a blow expected to place the Premier’s 22-month leadership under scrutiny within the ALP caucus, Ms Allan is facing a revolt over her leadership style, with an emphatic 61 per cent of voters reporting they are unhappy with her. Just 30 per cent support her leadership.

Voters have also delivered a second personal blow to Ms Allan with Opposition Leader Brad ­Battin commanding a 41-36 per cent lead in the critical better premier stakes, according to the survey.

But Newspoll has delivered a wake-up call to the Liberal-­National Coalition, with 60 per cent of voters saying they are not confident the opposition – which has been locked in a civil war over the John Pesutto and Moira Deeming crisis for two years – is ready to govern Australia’s second largest state.

Even 23 per cent of Liberal ­voters said they were not confident their party was ready to run the state.

As Victoria approaches the 500-day countdown to the 2026 election, the survey represents a damning indictment of both sides of politics, according to Newspoll chief Campbell White.

“This poll is a pox on both your houses. However, while there is a swing it is relatively modest and not sufficient for the government to change,” Mr White said.

Of critical concern to Labor MPs will be Newspoll’s finding that 59 per cent of voters don’t ­believe the Allan government ­deserves to be re-elected.

Just 25 per cent of voters said Labor deserved to win the state election on November 28, 2026.

With Labor battling a $194bn debt spiral, a budget crisis, unfunded and blown out major road and rail projects, deteriorating basic services and a youth crime wave, Newspoll reveals even 24 per cent of Labor voters believe it is time to give another party a crack at running the state.

A further 20 per cent of Labor voters said they didn’t know if the government deserved a fourth term, meaning 44 per cent of the party’s supporters are not backing Labor to win. Labor’s soft support among its own supporters will be of particular concern to the Allan government and Victorian ALP strategists as they prepare to fight for what would be a historic fourth term in office following on Daniel Andrews’ election wins in 2014, 2018 and 2022.

It suggests the long-term government faces a potential fatigue factor among voters.

The sentiment that Labor’s time is up in Victoria is evenly split between men (61 per cent) and women (58 per cent). The gender split is similar relating to concerns about the Liberal Party’s capacity to govern, with women (62 per cent) marginally more critical than men (58 per cent).

Mr Battin will be buoyed by his five-point lead on the question of who would make the better premier.

But almost one in four voters, 23 per cent, reported they were undecided, meaning both leaders have a chance in the next 18 months to win them over and boost their personal rating.

And while Mr Battin’s strong head-to-head result against Ms Allan will boost his six-month-old leadership, 40 per cent of voters are dissatisfied with him, 35 per cent are satisfied and 25 per cent are uncommitted.

The statewide survey – conducted between June 23 and 30 – reveals that despite voters being ready to give Labor the boot and collapsing support for the Premier, the Allan government’s 53-47 per cent two-party-preferred lead is just two points down on its emphatic 2022 election victory, meaning Mr Battin’s Coalition would fall well short of the 16 seats required to claim government on November 28, 2026.

“The most problematic number for the Coalition is that just 40 per cent of voters are confident they are ready to govern Victoria. The only group where a majority are confident is voters aged 65 plus,” Mr White said.

In primary-vote terms, both Labor and the Coalition are neck-and-neck on 35 per cent, with support for the Greens at 12 per cent and 18 per cent of voters saying they intend voting for an independent candidate.

Labor’s primary is down two points to 35 per cent, but the Coalition has barely moved since the last election and stays marooned another the same percentage.

The Greens are also only up half a point to 12, while the “other” vote is up a point to 18.

On the question of whether the Allan government deserved to be re-elected next year, opposition was strongest among older voters, with 63 per cent aged between 50 and 64 saying it was time to give another party a go. This increased to 72 per cent among those aged 65 and over.

Regional Victorians also reported stronger anti-government sentiment on this question, with 62 per cent supporting a change in government compared with 58 per cent of Melbourne voters.