North and North-West tipped as key federal election battlegrounds in Tasmania

Tasmania’s North and North-West will again be the key battleground for the major parties in the upcoming federal election

Braddon Labor MHR Justine Keay, left, and Bass Labor MHR Ross Hart. Picture: CHRIS KIDD

THE North and North-West of Tasmania will again be the key battleground for the major parties in the upcoming federal election.

Every sitting federal lower house MP from Tasmania is expected to stand for re-election.

The Australian Electoral Commission describes Clark and Franklin as safe seats; and Bass Braddon and Lyons as marginal. In Braddon, the margin is just 1.73 per cent.

The northernmost seats are probably the Liberal Party’s best hopes of wresting a seat from Labor — which currently holds four of the five Tasmanian House of Representatives seats.

Independent Andrew Wilkie is expected to hold Clark, and Labor’s Julie Collins in Franklin and Brian Mitchell in Lyons look pretty safe in an election where momentum appears to be in favour of Labor.

Sportsbet, which has Labor at $1.20 to form government, is not tipping any Tasmanian seat will change hands.

The May 18 federal election will be one of the largest peacetime exercises held in Australia:

there are 151 House of Representatives seats up for grabs, plus half the Senate — 40 senators.

Watched over by 80,000 polling officials, 16.2 million voters will file into 7500 polling places and make their mark with one of 110,000 pencils tied down with 150 kilometres of string.

In Tasmania, there is a new electorate: Clark, renamed from Denison at the last election, and a few minor tweaks to electoral boundaries.

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Electoral analyst Kevin Bonham says the lower house seats may not prove to be spellbinding contests.

“The main theme of this election is that the Coalition is trying to save seats — they’re not trying to win seats,” Dr Bonham said.

“With Braddon I think there’s’s an argument there because the by-election for Labor wasn’t that hot.

“Someone might spring a surprise and get up there but I’m not aware of strong evidence of anyone doing that at this stage.”

In the Senate, he the two final seats would likely be fought out between Labor, the Greens and the best of the minor candidates.

“The major parties may just get two each and then you have Labor the Greens and Lambie in for the last two plus anyone else who springs a surprise and gets up there.

Labor’s best hope was a surge from Lisa Singh, who is well down the ticket but enjoys a strong personal following.

Ms Singh does not seem to be mounting the same sort of campaign she did in 2016. “At this stage I’m not seeing the campaigning for the below the line vote for Lisa Singh that we saw last time,” he said.

“Maybe people will do it again anyway, but I wouldn't rely on that. It’s not easy for Labor to get three but they can if they pick up a swing compared to the last result.”