Government talks down early election despite record popularity

Premier Peter Gutwein has set an opinion poll record to become the nation’s most popular state leader, but the State Government has ruled out going to an early election.

• Premier lauds state’s response to coronavirus pandemic
• Gutwein ‘most popular premier in the country’

THE State Government has ruled out going to an early election despite Premier Gutwein recording the highest satisfaction ratings for a premier in living memory.

The latest Newspoll survey has Mr Gutwein pipping West Australia’s Labor Premier Mark McGowan by one percentage point as the country’s most popular Premier.

Ninety per cent of respondents said they were satisfied with Mr Gutwein, the poll showed, as well as 70 per cent saying he had handled the coronavirus crisis “very well” and another 23 per cent saying “fairly well”.

Mr Gutwein said he was not focused on polls.

Premier Peter Gutwein. Picture: ZAK SIMMONDS

“The challenges presented by coronavirus have been substantial and the decisions we have made have been focused on Tasmanians’ health and safety first and foremost,” he said.

“Many of these decisions have been tough to make and hard on Tasmanians and I haven’t viewed this as a popularity contest.”

Deputy Premier Jeremy Rockliff said the Government wasn’t planning to take advantage of its buoyant poll result.

“We have no plans for an early election, there’s too much to do. Tasmanians expect us to get on with the job,” he said.

Political analyst Kevin Bonham said the result was the highest he knew of for a state premier in credible opinion polls.

But he cautioned that personal popularity in June 2020 did not guarantee electoral success in March 2022, when the next election is due.

“There have been cases in history where people have had really high opinion ratings who have crashed,” he said.

“It doesn’t tell you anything about what his rating might be like in a year’s time — these things have held up over the last few months across the country, but the picture might be different in a year.

“Sooner or later leaders … are going to find that they’re going have to make decisions that are unpopular.

“At the moment if you’ve got a Premier everyone’s approving of that’s a difficult situation to be dealing with, but we don’t know voting intention.

“The question is whether there’s going to be some residual credit that leaders can carry into the election.”

Mr Gutwein’s buoyant polling poses a challenge for Labor.

Former Premier Lara Giddings said the result did not rule the party out.

Lara Giddings. Picture: CHRIS KIDD

“I would say to Rebecca White today and the Labor Party today not to be daunted by this poll. It is a reflection of a point time and a reflection of a response to a crisis,” she said.

“I think Peter Gutwein has responded very well to the coronavirus and has shown leadership at a time when it was required.

“We’re still two years away from the next election and a day is a long time in politics.

“We will come through this coronavirus crisis and he has a bigger crisis on his hands that he is going to be challenged by a budget that is going to take this state in to net debt for potentially decades, he had an economic recession or depression to deal with.”

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Former Labor Party minister Julian Amos said there were challenges ahead for both parties.

“I think the figure is a fair one. I think he has handled this superbly well. I think unlike Morrison you know that the man is absolutely sincere,” Dr Amos said.

“I think the question for Peter is how he manages the economy. You can win the war but lose the peace.”

He said Labor needed to focus on making up ground on the government in other areas.

“A chain is as strong as its weakest link, do you attack the strength or attack the weakness?
“How’s Mark Shelton, going, how's Howlett going, how’s Michael Ferguson?

“It’s for Labor to win or Labor to lose. It’s up to them how they handle it.”

He said Ms White needed to scotch talk of David O’Byrne’s leadership ambitions.

“It’s up to Rebecca White to kill it. I think it’s easy to kill. She’s given him Treasury, he’s got work to do.”

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