Tasmania is on track for population decline, despite recent rises

LISA DENNY: Tasmania is on track for population decline. We have three options, including doing nothing.

Festival crows at The Taste. Picture: SAM ROSEWARNE

GOVERNMENT and the wider community assume the state’s population will continue to increase. There is an obvious reason for this: the state’s population has risen more rapidly than expected in recent years and the Tasmanian Government has set a target for further increases out to 2050.

However, the nature of aggregated statewide data masks the true picture of how the population is changing within the state. The situation differs substantially among the 29 Local Government Areas, which are the designated planning authorities.

Today the Institute for the Study of Social Change releases its latest Insight Report — Insight Nine: Regional population trends in Tasmania: Issues and options.

The often-overlooked reality is that both the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Tasmanian Department of Treasury and Finance population projections suggest the number of people living in Tasmania will to start to decline by mid-century.

This is due to the rate of population ageing. Population ageing heralds the end of population growth and the start of depopulation. And depopulation occurs first at a local government area level before becoming a statewide issue. In recent years, a new type of depopulation has emerged, one whereby natural decline (more deaths than births) prevents an area from achieving longer-term population growth.

For Tasmania, natural decline is projected to occur from the late 2020s. While migration is projected to provide population growth until at least mid-century, natural decline is expected to exceed any further migration gains from this point onwards.

Prolonged economic restructuring has manifested in uneven patterns of regional development and thus economic opportunities in the state. This impacts a region’s population — particularly its size and age structure — leading to varied patterns of population change across Tasmania.

Twelve local government areas have already been experiencing prolonged periods of population decline, yet another 11 are experiencing population growth above the state’s five-year average of 0.6 per cent per annum. Three of the latter are experiencing hyper-ageing, whereby 20 per cent of the population is over 65, pointing to imminent natural decline. The remaining areas are teetering on the cusp of depopulation.

It is important to note population change is driven by individuals’ decisions — whether to have a child or whether to relocate. Relocation decisions are primarily influenced by economic opportunities in the labour market and, as populations age, increasingly by where to live during retirement. Overlaying these decisions are important considerations about lifestyle and the amenity of a place.

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In recent years, migration from interstate and overseas has helped drive overall population growth, but this has overwhelmingly favoured the major cities, particularly greater Hobart.

This situation is projected to continue for the short to medium term. However, this growth masks the reality for other regions in Tasmania which continue to experience the economic and social challenges accompanying an ageing and/or declining population. This variation across the state policy challenges associated with uneven economic and demographic change.

Critically, policy measures attempting to increase the share of growth in regional areas are likely to struggle against natural population decline and a lack of economic opportunities. A specific risk is that regions will compete to retain or attract people to the detriment of other regions and the state as a whole.

However, the complexity of depopulation defies generic or best-practice policy responses and systematic evidence in relation to the effectiveness of policy interventions has not yet been established due to the relatively recent, unprecedented nature of population ageing and eventual decline.

However, there are three broad types of policy responses to population ageing and decline:

1. Strategic intervention to mitigate depopulation (countering strategies)

2. Acceptance strategies to manage decline and its consequences, or

3. Doing nothing (non-intervention).

Countering strategies tend to focus on stimulating both economic and population growth, largely through proactive measures to attract or retain people and investment. Countering strategies have been found to slow population decline, but not reverse it. The regional population strategy being developed by the Northern Tasmanian Development Corporation is a promising example of a co-ordinated response to emerging population challenges.

Accepting strategies focus on maintaining the quality of life for the existing population by continuing or strategically downsizing services and infrastructure to meet the needs of a changing population.

Doing nothing may be the result of denial or ignorance, or it may involve an active decision to allow the free market to determine whether an area survives or not.

The most appropriate response will depend on local context, governance frameworks and the community and political will to respond. We need a statewide framework for responding to the population challenges facing different clusters of local government areas across Tasmania.

Dr Lisa Denny is a demographer and research fellow with the Institute for the Study of Social Change, University of Tasmania. Her latest Insight Report Nine: Regional population trends in Tasmania: Issues and options was co-written with Institute researcher Nyree Pisanu.