Newspoll: Majority in mood for change after just one term of Labor, hung parliament looms

Anthony Albanese’s approval rating has slumped to a record low as voters make their feelings known about whether his government deserves to be re-elected. Have your say.

Most Australian voters do not believe the Labor government deserves to be re-elected, with Anthony Albanese’s approval rating slumping to a record low of minus 21.

According to the latest exclusive Newspoll in The Australian, the ­Coalition is maintaining a 51-49 lead over Labor on a two-party-preferred basis, despite a one-point fall in its primary vote to 38 per cent.

The poll also shows voters remain reluctant to back Opposition leader Peter Dutton enough for the Coalition to win in a majority government.

With the election expected to be called within weeks, Labor’s primary vote sits on an equal record low of 31 per cent, compared to its 2022 election result of 32.6 per cent. The two-party-preferred result indicates a 3.1 per cent swing against Labor since the last election.

On a uniform basis and taking into account new margins created by electoral redistributions, the swing would be equivalent to the loss of seven or eight seats and enough to prevent Mr Albanese forming a majority government.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese during Question Time at Parliament House in Canberra on February 13. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

However, it is still only half the size of the swing the Coalition would require to win in its own right, leaving a hung parliament the most likely outcome if the poll numbers were to be replicated at an election.

The Newspoll surveyed 1244 voters nationally ­between February 10 and 14 and followed a two-week parliamentary sitting.

It is widely believed this was the last sitting before the election, and scepticism grows that Jim Chalmers will deliver the planned budget on March 25.

There has been little movement in the News­poll numbers since the first poll of the year in late January. The Greens remain on 12 per cent, with One Nation maintaining a primary vote of 7 per cent.

Other minor parties and independents have lifted a point to 12 per cent, at the expense of the Coalition in the latest poll, suggesting the protest vote against both major parties remains strong.

Mr Albanese’s approval rating remained unchanged on a record low of 37 per cent. But with a one-point rise in dissatisfaction, the Prime Minister’s net negative approval rating rose to minus 21 which is the lowest since he became leader.

Opposition leader Peter Dutton during Question Time at Parliament House in Canberra on February 12. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

By comparison, Mr Dutton’s approval rating rose a point to 41 per cent, which is the highest he has achieved as Opposition Leader. His disapproval rating remained unchanged on 51 per cent, giving him a net negative approval rating of minus 10.

This is the largest margin in Mr Dutton’s favour since the last election.

In the head-to-head contest on who would make the better prime minister, Mr Albanese retained a slight advantage, with his lead rising two points to 5 per cent.

There is widespread consensus among voters that Labor does not deserve a second term in government. Only 34 per cent of voters believe Labor should be re-elected, while 53 per cent think it’s time for a change.

Queenslanders showed the strongest sentiment for a shift, with just 23 per cent of voters feeling Labor deserved another term, and 58 per cent supporting change. In Victoria, 54 per cent of voters favoured giving someone else a chance, and only 34 per cent believed Labor should stay in power. In NSW, 37 per cent felt Labor deserved re-election, while 50 per cent disagreed.

Disapproval of the Albanese government’s performance was most prominent among voters aged over 65 years, with just 25 per cent believing Labor should be re-elected. Among other age groups, support for re-election ranged from 37 per cent among 18 to 34-year-olds to 36 per cent among 35 to 49-year-olds, and 50 per cent among 50 to 64-year-olds.

Gender differences were minimal, with 53 per cent of male voters and 52 per cent of female voters feeling it was time for change.

However, more female voters were undecided – 16 per cent, compared to 11 per cent of male voters. Among those who believed Labor should be re-elected, 36 per cent were men, and 32 per cent were women.

Originally published as Newspoll: Majority in mood for change after just one term of Labor, hung parliament looms