Tasmania needs strategy to contain coronavirus beyond border closures, according to world-leading infectious diseases expert

A world-leading disease expert has issued a brutal assessment of Tasmania’s options for exiting coronavirus lockdown, saying hanging hopes on a vaccine is “very risky” but extended closures will have dire economic consequences. READ HIS ANALYSIS >>

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TASMANIA’S extended border closures due to coronavirus are a popular short-term decision but the state needs a medium to long-term strategy to live with the virus and should not pin hopes on a vaccine becoming available, a world-leading infectious diseases expert has warned.

The state has had 227 confirmed cases of COVID-19, but only one since May 15, a case that was detected in hotel quarantine and who has since recovered from the illness.

Border restrictions in place until at least August 31 have effectively insulated Tasmania from the virus amid a devastating large-scale outbreak in Victoria and lesser case numbers in other states, but Professor Dale Fisher wondered how long border closures could be sustained.

Professor Dale Fisher, Senior Consultant and Head of Division Infectious Diseases at the National University of Singapore, poses for a photograph, in Singapore, on Friday, March 13, 2020 Photograph by Paul Miller/The Australian.

Prof Fisher, an infectious diseases expert at Singapore’s National University Hospital and chair of the World Health Organisation’s global outbreak alert and response network, said premature border openings could have health and political consequences.

But he suggested Premier Peter Gutwein outline the State Government’s longer-term containment strategy beyond border closures — and that it should not pin hopes on the potential of a vaccine becoming available.

“I can see if [the Premier] opened the borders now and there were some big outbreaks, that would be political suicide,’’ Prof Fisher said.

“I understand why these decisions are popular because on face value it solves the problem of what could arise tomorrow, or next week, or next month.

“But how comfortable are people going to be if they are in this situation for a year?”

Tasmanian Premier Peter Gutwein speaks to the media at Huonville High School on August 6, 2020.

Mr Gutwein said on Thursday his priority was keeping Tasmanians safe from the virus.

“Tasmania is in a good place at the moment and it’s important we stay there,’’ he said.

“We’ll rely on Public Health advice in terms of borders and we will keep our borders strong until it’s safe to take them down. That’s the bottom line.”

Prof Fisher said extended closures would impact people like those unable to visit family and friends, and would have more significant economic impacts, including for businesses like tourism operators.

He said the possible strategy of waiting for a vaccine for coronavirus was “very risky” because there was no guarantee of when it would be available, how effective it would be, and how many people would agree to have it.

“What if the vaccine comes and it’s 50 per cent effective and only 30 per cent of the population agrees to take it? Are you going to open the borders then?,’’ he said.

Greens Franklin MP and epidemiologist, Rosalie Woodruff, said Tasmanians needed to remain “on our toes” and remain vigilant and alert to the volatility of the virus.

“The policy hasn’t changed and shouldn’t change, which is to listen to the Public Health advice so that we make the right decisions that will protect Tasmanian lives,’’ she said.

“The purpose is to protect lives — we’ve done that and it’s been successful — why would we change our approach now?”

Greens MP Rosalie Woodruff during question time in state parliament. Picture: Zak Simmonds

Dr Woodruff said she did not believe the state was necessarily waiting for a vaccine, but was exercising appropriate caution by keeping borders closed.

“The mainland borders are porous and we can’t be confident that the quarantine measures in place in other states are as good as they need to be to safeguard Tasmanians,’’ she said.

“What we can do is wait for a period of time where the volatility in Victoria has gone down.”

Dr Fisher said the extended border closures gave the state more time to prepare for how it would handle potential future cases, suggesting measures like isolation of all future positive cases in the one place.

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