Tasmania could have more than 500 COVID-19 cases by April

Biostatisticians have delivered a warning about how fast the coronavirus could spread in Tasmania – and when the state might run out of intensive care capacity.

BIOSTATISTICIANS have warned that Tasmania, with its current rate of COVID-19 infection growth, could reach 500 cases as soon as April and run out of intensive care bed capacity once that number hit 1000.

Megan Higgie and Ben Phillips said Tasmania was currently doubling its COVID-19 cases every 3.4 days, and could have between 215 and 581 coronavirus cases by April 6.

With only 50 ICU beds available for a ballpark 5 per cent of infected people who become critically ill with the virus, Dr Higgie warned Tasmania could soon reach peak hospital capacity once the state had 1000 cases.

“Imagine if you’re going to reach your ICU bed limits on the 20th of June if they do a really good job [at containing exponential growth],” the James Cook University academic said.

“But 3.4 days later, you’d double your capacity. It gives you no capacity to act once you’re anywhere near your limits.”

A new ICU isolation suite at the Royal Hobart Hospital.

Dr Higgie said while Tasmania was not yet at a point where she and Dr Phillips, a University of Melbourne academic, could give date predictions, she said now was the “perfect time” for the state to prevent an ICU overload.

“Tasmania is in a really good position to lock down now. Lock it down. Do not get in the position of exponential growth,” she said.

“Don’t be afraid of the lockdown – the sooner we do it, the shorter it will be.”

Dr Higgie said the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Group showed Tasmania had 50 ICU beds – 39 public and 11 private – with accompanying ventilators and 24-hour care nurses.

Staff at work in the ICU of the Royal Hobart Hospital.

The academics said they had insufficient data for an accurate estimation of when Tasmania would run out of ICU beds, adding low detection meant there could be many more deaths.

Currently, about 5000 Tasmanians are in mandatory self-quarantine after returning from interstate or overseas.

A study published last week in the Medical Journal of Australia forecast that Australia, as a whole, could run out of ICU beds by April 5 if the rate of infection was not curbed.