One in 10 million chance of COVID re-entering Tasmania from non hot spots

There is about a one in 10 million chance of a case of coronavirus being imported into Tasmania from places that are not virus hot spots, health officials have confirmed.

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THERE is about a one in 10 million chance of a case of coronavirus being imported into Tasmania from places that are not virus hot spots, health officials have confirmed.

Deputy Director of Public Health Scott McKeown shocked political leaders when he revealed the figure at a briefing on Monday.

The state government and the public health department this week failed to answer questions about what the quantifiable risk to Tasmania was of a case being imported from COVID-safe jurisdictions.

Director of Public Health Dr. Mark Veitch gives a coronavirus update on Friday 4th September 2020. Picture: LUKE BOWDEN

When pressed on the issue at Friday’s livestreamed press conference, Public Health Director Mark Veitch said there was “no formal modelling” conducted by Public Health about the risk, but admitted the one in 10 million figure was “probably around the mark”.

Dr Veitch said it was a metric that considered there was only minimal cases of coronavirus not linked to a known cluster, including outbreaks in Victoria and parts of Sydney and Brisbane.

“I don’t think it’s all that useful to dwell on that precise number,’’ he said.

“I think we know that the risk of coronavirus infection outside of these main hot spots is actually very low … what I also hope I’ve explained is there’s a range of other considerations.”

During the marathon press conference, Dr Veitch also said social media posts and talkback radio was being used to inform decisions based on perceptions of public fears about the virus, but said further work was being done to quantify it.

Director of Public Health Dr. Mark Veitch gives a coronavirus update on Friday 4th September 2020. Picture: LUKE BOWDEN

Opposition Leader Rebecca White said the government needed to better explain its decisions about borders and other restrictions and “release all the public health advice it’s received”.

“The decisions taken by government are affecting people’s lives and people’s livelihoods. People are unable to see their families, including FIFO workers who live here, and many businesses are on their knees,’’ she said.

“Tasmanians will support decisions where they can see and understand the evidence the government has used to make those decisions.

“But I think they will be troubled to learn that the government is looking at comments on social media rather than science to inform considerations about easing border restrictions.”

Greens’ health spokeswoman Rosalie Woodruff said the one in 10 million figure was “assuming a theoretical world that doesn’t exist” and that because borders were porous, the risk could not be accurately known.

“It might be theoretical but the reality is the risk can’t be quantified precisely and the director of public health is looking at the broader context of irisk in the decision,’’ she said.

Luke Martin from TICT. Tourism recovery plan launch at Grand Chancellor. Picture: RICHARD JUPE

Tourism Industry Council of Tasmania chief executive Luke Martin said tourism operators were entitled to know the risk assessments on borders opening to other COVID-safe states.

“To learn today that it’s something ‘like’ a 1 in 10 million chance of the virus re-entering Tasmania from those state is a hard to pill to swallow,’’ he said.

“Also to learn that it is public anxiety that is driving much of this, we need to know what measures the government is putting in place to start to address these community concerns.”

Dr Veitch said he hoped restrictions could be eased as soon as it was safe, but said it was important people had trust and confidence in public health measures.

Mr Gutwein said decisions about policies on borders were based on many factors and that Tasmania was “the envy of the world” for its handling of coronavirus.

It was also revealed yesterday that international arrivals on return mercy flights could be quarantined in Tasmanian hotels after talks at National Cabinet on Friday.

Hobart airport arrivals after stricter measures are enforced by state parliament. Picture: MATT THOMPSON

Prime Minister Scott Morrison named Tasmania as being among states interested in accepting arrivals, which are now all transiting through Sydney.

But Premier Peter Gutwein said that would not be possible until Hobart Airport was in a position to accept international flights, potentially enabling those on mercy flights to quarantine in Tasmania and for a travel bubble with New Zealand.

Premier Peter Gutwein at a coronavirus update on Friday 4th September 2020. Picture: LUKE BOWDEN

Mr Gutwein said once that happened, a decision would be made based on risk.

Dr Veitch said a retrospective case had been added to Tasmania’s tally of coronavirus cases, a woman in her 60s from the state’s north who had returned from the UK in March.

He said she had recently had a test to detect antibodies, which came back positive, but was not considered an active case and posed no risk to the community.

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