New research shows Tasmania is the state most vulnerable to coronavirus

New research predicts Tasmania will have the highest per capita death rates from coronavirus – and it’s not only the elderly or those with known health problems that need to be concerned.

TASMANIA could see the highest coronavirus related deaths per capita, according to new research.

The demographic research was published by data analytics consultancy Evidion, and was completed by chief analytics officer and former New South Wales government chief demographer Justin Douglas.

Mr Douglas based his finding off analysis of coronavirus data from epidemiologists from Hong Kong and the United States, including a paper published following joint work at the University of Hong Kong and Harvard University.

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“The report contains a mix of good and bad news for Australia,” Mr Douglas said.

“One positive, if you can call it that, is that the estimate of 50,000 is towards the bottom end of estimates discussed in the media in recent weeks.

“Another positive is that the demographic modelling shows clear differences between Australia and Italy. These demographic differences should prevent a repeat of the tragedies currently unfolding in Italy, but the Australian community can’t afford to be complacent.”

Mr Douglas said the modelling implied coronavirus could kill about 10,000 Australians under 30.

“It is not only the elderly or those with known health problems that need to be concerned about the coronavirus risk.”

Mr Douglas said New South Wales was expected to have the highest death toll.

“NSW is expected to have the highest coronavirus death toll, in part because it has more people, but also because it is where coronavirus infections are already most established.

However, Tasmania was more vulnerable.

He said the study predicted the coronavirus death toll per capita would be highest in Tasmania and South Australia.

“Our modelling shows that Tasmania is Australia’s most vulnerable state once population size is taken into account,” he said.

“The Tasmanian Government is to be congratulated for being the first to close its border, but our modelling shows more needs to be done to protect Tasmanians.”

He said the Northern Territory was predicted to have Australia’s lowest death toll at 250, in part due to the territory’s remoteness.