Coronavirus Australia: Why our COVID-19 death toll is low

While other countries have death tolls in the thousands, Australia’s virus fatalities have remained relatively low – for one obvious reason.

Suburban Australia could be the reason why our coronavirus death toll has remained low.

With 51 deaths recorded so far, Australia is a long way off from countries that have seen thousands of people die.

Italy has the highest death toll at more than 17,000. Next is Spain with 14,792.

New York City alone has 4571 cases among 14,739 across the United States.

So why is Australia, as such a big country, recording so many less than others?

Professor Gary Geelhoed, executive director of the Western Australian Health Translation Network, said it was because we were so big.

Australia has a population density of about three people per square kilometre compared to Italy with 206 and Spain at 91.

“Just look at the streetscape of cities and towns of Italy and compare it to the average Australian suburban streetscape – the difference is obvious,” he told the Australian Financial Review.

“It’s so much easier to isolate jurisdictions here, all you need do is put a police car on the road linking them.

“But we can’t be complacent because others have been caught out by underestimating this virus.”

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There are now more than 6000 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Australia with 2773 in New South Wales, 1212 in Victoria, 953 in Queensland, 420 in South Australia, 481 in Western Australia, 107 in Tasmania, 99 in the Australian Capital Territory and 28 in the Northern Territory.

Only 0.7 per cent of coronavirus cases in Australia have been fatal.

Overseas this figure has been as high as 12 per cent.

Prof Geelhoed said Australia’s low death rate was also because if its excellent health system.

People who need ventilators are able to get them where other countries have struggled with supplies.

When hospitals become overwhelmed, deaths accelerate.

Last week Health Minister Greg Hunt said the low rate was because of how many tests had been carried out.

“At this stage our numbers indicate that we are at the global forefront, we have a good picture of where we’re at,” he said.

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A recent analysis by the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC) found the trajectory of the first 1000 cases in Australia was “somewhat different” to Italy, the US and UK where deaths have been higher.

Australia passed 1000 cases on March 21 and up to that point only seven people had died and less than 20 had needed intensive care treatment.

That compared to more than 20 deaths in Britain, around 30 in Italy and 35 in the US at the 1000 infections mark.

University of NSW Associate Professor James Wood said in the early stages a big factor in the lower rate was because a large number of cases had been acquired overseas and travellers tended to be younger and healthier adults.

“We’ve been testing a lot – so we've probably found a high proportion of all cases,” he told Daily Mail Australia.

A young women in Sydney wears a face mask during the coronavirus outbreak. Picture: Matrix

Italy also only tested those who were more severe, whereas Australia was finding more mild and even asymptomatic cases.

“In countries that are not doing as much testing, there's probably more mild infections they haven't picked up,” University of Adelaide head of infectious diseases laboratories Chris Burrell told the Australian Financial Review.

“That makes the death percentage look higher. It means we probably know more of our true cases than a lot of other countries.”

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Another country with a low death rate compared to other European countries is Germany.

Earlier this week the country had recorded 1584 deaths among 100,123 cases, putting its rate around 1.5 per cent. Italy has a rate of 12 per cent and Spain 9.5.

Experts have said Germany’s low rate is because of more testing.

Germany also has 621 acute-care beds per 100,000 people, compared with Italy’s 275 beds per 100,000 and the UK’s 228 beds per 100,000.

“Overall, the German response has been a good example of how countries can combat the spread and severity of COVID-19,” Jeremy Rossman, virology expert at the University of Kent, wrote for The Conversation.

“The core of the German response matches very well with recommendations from the World Health Organisation: prepare, test (isolate and treat) and mitigate the spread of the virus.”

Originally published as Coronavirus Australia: Why our COVID-19 death toll is low