University of Tasmania expects dramatic drop in overseas students

While the University of Tasmania is expecting a sharp decline in international students, Vice Chancellor Rufus Black is still planning a shift into the city but with some changes.

THE “pipeline” effect of plummeting international student numbers will be felt for years to come, University of Tasmania Vice Chancellor Rufus Black says.

Professor Black said while the financial impact would be “huge” and eventual job losses could not be ruled out, the university remained committed to shifting its Sandy Bay campus into central Hobart.

“We will continue the development in the city, it will naturally go slightly at a slower pace,” Prof Black told the Sunday Tasmanian.

“I think we’ll find coming out of this time that bringing more activity into the city will probably be really important for the city. Equally, having the university as accessible as possible to people who are looking for new skills for what will be a changed world will be important.”

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Prof Black said only a few hundred students had dropped out this semester and both domestic and international student numbers were up slightly compared with last year, which he attributed to the efforts of academic and support staff in shifting course delivery online.

“Our real challenge is next semester on. With the uncertainties around international travel, we anticipate seeing a much lower level of international students over the next couple of years and of course that has a big pipeline effect for the university, as a student who doesn’t start as a first year doesn’t become a second year,” Prof Black said.

Professor Rufus Black, Vice-Chancellor, University of Tasmania. Picture: RICHARD JUPE

He said job cuts were a potential outcome, depending on government policy updates regarding international arrivals, which would dramatically affect enrolments.

“When we see the shape of government’s response and policy frame, that will make it much clearer what our international revenue drop will be and what measures we’ll need to come up with,” he said.

The university announced in March that it would slash almost 400 courses, 200 of which had no or very few enrolments, and at the time Prof Black said staffing cuts would be managed through redeployment and natural turnover.

If necessary, Prof Black said any redundancy measures would be undertaken in consultation with the National Tertiary Education Union, while respecting staff choices “to the greatest extent we can”.

He said the university had “paused” its planning work around shifting its southern campus into the Hobart CBD, but remained committed to the move.

“This was always a decade-or-more-long project and new building wasn’t scheduled really for quite some time, so in that sense it may or may not push out,” Prof Black said.

“Revitalising cities is going to be even more important post-corona than before corona. Cities around the world that have universities in them will be very grateful because it gives them a dynamism for economic renewal that will be really important.”

In the shorter term, Prof Black said the university would look at temporary uses for the city buildings it has recently acquired.

The current international student cohort of 6700 international students includes 1000 in China, who were unable to travel to Tasmania due to COVID-19 restrictions.

Last year the university had just over 6500 international students and 24,300 domestic students, which has increased to 24,400 domestic students in semester one this year.

Prof Black said the success of the online shift had seen promising interest from potential remote students overseas, but that would not make up for the “substantial” overall decline in international students.

With every Australian university now desperately fighting for a greater share of the domestic student market, Prof Black said UTAS had one clear advantage over its rivals – “being Tasmanian”.

He said the university would be central to Tasmania’s post-COVID renewal, citing value-added agriculture, advanced manufacturing and digital services as some of the “great strengths” for the future.

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