Matthew Johns’ NRL semi-final previews: Teams over-reliant on key players could be doomed

Star halfbacks Nathan Cleary and Mitchell Moses need their big men to fire under pressure, writes MATTY JOHNS.

Nathan Cleary, Mitchell Moses, Tom Trbojevic and James Tedesco.

Four teams put their seasons on the line this weekend in do-or-die semi-final clashes and their hopes appear to rest on the performances of four key players.

However, scratch the surface and there are a number of factors that will dictate how much influence James Tedesco, Tom Trbojevic, Nathan Cleary and Mitchell Moses have on their sides’ fortunes.

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Semi-final 1

Sea Eagles v Roosters

Friday, 7.50pm

TEDDY V TURBO

Where they’ll attack

I’ve rarely seen reliance on an individual, the way the Manly Sea Eagles and Sydney Roosters rely on Turbo and Teddy.

In a career full of brilliant seasons, this is James Tedesco’s finest. He has carried this football team for the majority of this season, and they will need a huge performance from him again on Friday night.

James Tedesco has had a career year for the Roosters. Picture: Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images

I’m interested to see how Teddy goes about his playmaking in this game because, as a first receiver, his preferred side is right of the ruck, but the opportunity lies to his left.

Manly’s right-side defence was diabolical last Friday against Melbourne, the defensive combination of Daly Cherry-Evans and Morgan Harper was torn to pieces by some pretty basic attacking shapes.

Roosters half Drew Hutchison is in good form, and with him operating that side of the field, he’ll have liked what he saw.

Hutchison will threaten, but speed kills and that is why Tedesco needs to get over to the left and challenge that defensive combination all night, with fast feet and short passing options.

Tom Trbojevic would have enjoyed a more low-key build up. Last week he appeared in the paper more than the Hemsworths, and with all the talk around both his and the Sea Eagles’ attacking brilliance, I suspect it may have thrown the team off kilter.

In hindsight, Manly’s soft win in the final round against North Queensland did them no favours against Melbourne.

Manly’s last play of the premiership round was the 110-metre miracle try after the siren.

Tom’s brilliance is the icing on the cake. While the Sea Eagles lean heavily on him, a lot of things need to be done well, which I’ll get to in a second, for Trbojevic to start dominating a game.

Melbourne nullified Tom Trbojevic in their qualifying final last week. Picture: NRL Photos

As usual, Tom’s threat will be through the middle, going at tight defenders, cutting inside them or skipping out for short-pass options.

But off quick play-the-balls there’s also opportunity wide. Of late, the Roosters have defended far more passively when the opposition uses the ball wide. If they sit off Tom they will be in for a lot of pain.

“Give me time, Give me space.”

That’s what Teddy and Tom will have been saying to their forwards leading into Friday night.

Last week the most commonly asked question was, “Can Melbourne stop Tom?”

They did. And they did it by cutting off his blood supply. In other words, the time and space forward dominance creates.

They stopped his forwards, and, in turn, they stopped him.

The most important players in this football match are both sets of forwards; they will determine how much freedom Teddy and Tommy get, by their ability to create momentum and halt the opposition’s.

Who wins?

I’d be more concerned for Manly if they had played well and had been beaten by less last week. They did so much wrong, and in my opinion it all stemmed from going into the contest with the wrong focus.

This week they won’t try and finesse their way to victory, they will return to a more direct power running and an aggressive defensive attitude.

Tom will be the icing on the cake.

Verdict: Sea Eagles by 8-10 points.

Roosters duo James Tedesco and Drew Hutchison can exploit Manly’s right-edge defence. Picture: Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images

SEMI-FINAL 2

Panthers v Eels

Saturday, 7.50pm

MOSES V CLEARY

What to look for

This could be a career-defining couple of weeks for Mitchell Moses.

His last two performances were close to the best of his career; under pressure he has delivered.

Mitchell isn’t trying to do too much. He is allowing his big men to roll upfield more, before he wants the ball in his hands, and it has got him playing straighter.

Doing a bit less has brought more quality into his pass selections and more thought into his kick options. His kicking has been exceptional.

If I was coaching Mitchell I’d urge him to run the football with his first few touches. It gets him in the right mindset to play with physicality, not just finesse, and encourages the team to do the same.

Mitchell Moses’ hot form at the back end of the season gives the Eels hope of an upset over the Panthers. Picture: Albert Perez/Getty Images

Last week, Penrith had problems handling Cody Walker on their right side. His speed spooked the defenders and made them turn in.

On their left defence, Adam Reynolds peeled them short with clever little attacking shapes, so there’s plenty for Mitch to have a crack at.

Cleary couldn’t quite find his normal rhythm last Saturday because of how soundly his forwards were beaten through the middle.

A lot of times he was forced to kick on the back foot and, as a result, he was unable to give Blake Taaffe the horror night he was hoping for.

Both Nathan and his halves partner, Jarome Luai, need to let their forwards roll forward and assert more dominance before they start pushing the ball around the field.

If I was Nathan I would be allowing Isaah Yeo to steer the forwards around early, sitting back, seeing how Parramatta are forming in defence.

If the Panthers’ big men win the yardage battle, Nathan will be the best player on the field, but he and Jarome need to allow them to do that.

There’s lots of opportunity on Parramatta’s right-side defence.

Last week Kalyn Ponga caught them out twice with clever cut-out passes for tries.

Blake Ferguson had lots of problems with his decision making. I reckon Fergo will have a busy night with lots of attack and lots of high kicks coming his way.

Nathan Cleary couldn’t get into his rhythm against Souths. Picture: Mark Kolbe/Getty Images

Can Parra adjust?

Parramatta have difficulty adjusting from daytime football to night-time football the following week.

On dry afternoons you can ping the ball around, you can football your way out of trouble more and avoid getting bogged down in an arm wrestle.

At night the surface is a little more slippery, the ball a little greasy and it tends to favour a more power-based game.

Trying to play dry, daytime football in these conditions can see you beat yourself.

There’s no better example than in the 2019 finals series where, in week one, they belted the Broncos 58-0 on a sunny Sunday afternoon, and then the week after got smashed by Melbourne on a slippery night-time surface.

How well Parramatta are able to adjust is a major factor.

Who wins?

Parra will need to improve dramatically. I just see too much quality in the Penrith team. There’s a belief in some quarters that they cannot win this competition after last week’s loss, I strongly disagree.

Verdict: Panthers by 12-16 points.

Originally published as Matthew Johns’ NRL semi-final previews: Teams over-reliant on key players could be doomed