There are no miracles or messiahs in this result

Despite all the rhetoric there were neither miracles nor come-from-behind upsets at this election

Despite Prime Minister Scott Morrison's claims to the contrary last Saturday's election win was no miracle nor a landslide. Picture: Rick Rycroft

OPINION - Bill Hoffman

SCOTT Morrison is not the Messiah, nor is the Coalition's win last Saturday a miracle.

Rather it was foreseeable, was predicted in this column last week written on the Friday before publication on election day and was well short of overwhelming on national figures.

More than a week before polling day Labor campaign workers were saying they would be happy if they came out of the election in Queensland holding onto Herbert.

In the end Labor did not even hold Longman that it re-won at a by-election last year that reinstalled Susan Lamb and ended Malcolm Turnbull's prime ministership.

But with the Queensland dislike for Turnbull out of the way the Longman MP was left literally like a lamb.

She went into this election with 54.4 per cent of the vote and needing a 3.7 per cent swing to unseat her. But with nowhere near her by-election resources and against an LNP opponent with no Newman-era baggage the swing was four per cent and she was gone.

At the time of writing this piece Labor held 67 seats and the Coalition 78. Across Australia, remarkably on a two-party count, only 239,517 votes separated the Coalition from Labor out of 12,877,627 cast. As of Wednesday the Coalition had 5,459,203 to Labor's 5,219,686.

Rather than being a miracle worker Scott Morrison commanded a party, the Liberal Party of Australia, that secured 3,394,726 votes or just 27.9 per cent of those cast to Labor's 33.6 per cent.

The LNP in Queensland delivered him a further 1,039,598 votes or 8.54 per cent of the total off the back of Clive Palmer's United Australia Party preferences and a two-week blitz of his negative advertising targeting Labor.

The Nationals' 588,886 votes represented just 4.82 per cent of those cast but by convention the party will provide the deputy prime minister in Michael McCormack.

Nationally the two-party swing against Labor was 0.76 per cent. Individually on national numbers Labor's first preference vote fell by 0.94 per cent and the Liberals by 0.77 per cent while the LNP's rose by 0.02 per cent and the Nationals by 0.23 per cent.

The Greens secured 1,211,742 votes nationally or 9.96 per cent, representing a 0.27 per cent fall. Independents who collectively attracted 423,354 votes (3.48%), Clive Palmer's United Australia Party with 409,464 (3.37%) and Pauline Hanson's One Nation with 363,828 votes (2.99%) were the only other significant numbers recorded apart, of course, from informal votes that beat all three at 701,012 votes (5.44%).

The point of the numbers is clear. There are rarely overwhelming victories. In the end this one came down to 20 marginal seats of which the Coalition held 15.

A better campaign strategy that took Scott Morrison right into people's homes via robocalls and then direct personal phone contact worked at shoring up seats the Coalition feared it may lose while stripping others from Labor.

Despite 50 plus polls that put the Coalition behind Labor, it was able to win by going to its strength in the preferred Prime Minister stakes.

After six years in Opposition spent building a team and developing a strong policy platform this may be hard for Labor to take.

But the bottom line, I had been told for weeks, was that male voters didn't trust Bill Shorten and women felt uncomfortable around him.

They were harsh judgements arrived at individually but sufficient to cruel any chance of a Labor victory.

There is absolutely no doubt the federal election result in Queensland has made Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk a political target as her government closes in on a state election in 16 months' time.

Lost in the outrage this week whipped up to some considerable extent by grandstanding sections of the media, was the story.

What happened to the Labor vote in Queensland, was it all about coal or more a judgment of the current State Government and has Deb Frecklington really put an alternative team together sterilised of the toxic policies and attitude that quickly made the Newman regime so unpalatable?

Adani will remain an issue even if an approval is granted for political expedience.

Some more jobs north of the Tropic of Capricorn may appear attractive now to struggling regional economies.

But if that comes at the expense of the aquifer on which farmers rely or the reef which is critical to tourism attitudes may quickly shift.

Originally published as There are no miracles or messiahs in this result