Hardly a thumping victory for the LNP on election day

This election, while a surprise result, was hardly a seismic shift in voting, and changed little in real terms.

Ballot box. Picture: Niyazz

MANY LNP fans are wildly misrepresenting the recent election as, for example, a "thumping” win for the LNP.

Perhaps a brief look at recent voting shifts (both ways) might suggest a bit more caution.

This election, while a surprise result, was hardly a seismic shift in voting, and changed little in real terms.

Consider the 2007 election when voters, the same "quiet aspirational Australians”, decisively voted out Howard.

Labor under Kevin Rudd won 23 seats extra and took a 5.44 per cent swing.

Consider the 2013 election when the same voters decisively elected an LNP government with Labor losing 17 seats and dropping 4.61 per cent of its vote.

Consider the 2016 election when the same "quiet Australians”, after just three years of LNP management, gave Labor an extra 14 seats, and an extra 3.13 per cent of the vote.

These were all big swings, with two of the three changing government and 2016 leaving the LNP barely clinging on.

Consider the 2019 election when it seems the LNP will have a slightly increased majority (+2 seats) and slightly increased vote, +1.1%.

Swings of 5.44 per cent, 4.61 per cent and 3.13 per cent all make 1.1 per cent look pretty small.

This was not a "thumping” win.

A win, certainly, but the "quiet Australians” have shown they can swing decisively and if the economy continues on its present downwards course, stand by for a decisive result next time.

CLIVE NEWTON

Nambour

Originally published as Hardly a thumping victory for the LNP on election day