Griffith University Dr Paul Williams says Labor-Greens alliance is LNP ‘fear’ tactic
There is little chance of a left alliance forming after the next election, a political science lecturer has warned, despite escalating LNP rhetoric on the matter.
Mackay
Don't miss out on the headlines from Mackay. Followed categories will be added to My News.
The ghosts of 2019 returned this month when the LNP claimed a ‘Labor-Greens alliance’ was on the cards at the upcoming election, threatening devastation for coal-dependent Central and North Queensland.
But Griffith University politics guru Dr Paul Williams has labelled the rhetorical ploy a ‘fear’ tactic, noting the polls all predict a majority Labor government.
“The polls are not pointing towards a hung parliament,” he said.
“It’s rare to see a prime minister and government sink so rapidly in the public opinion.
“It’s not looking good (for the LNP).”
Over the weekend, there was plenty of scuttlebutt about a possible leadership spill after Roy Morgan research found Treasurer Josh Frydenberg had emerged as a preferred leader ahead of Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton.
On present polling, Dr Williams said Labor could expect to form government with seat numbers into the high 80s.
The money markets also predict a Labor government.
As of February 17, Ladbrokes prices Labor at $1.36 to form the next government, with the Coalition at $3.
Sportsbet has Labor at $1.35 and the Coalition at $3.
The pre-campaign brouhaha kicked off after Greens leader Adam Bandt said he would demand a six-month suspension of coal, oil and gas projects in return for supporting Labor in a hung parliament.
LNP Dawson candidate Andrew Willcox said such a proposal would hammer regional Queensland.
“The potential consequences of a Labor Greens alliance could cost Queensland $85 billion in investment and 52,000 jobs as soon as the deal is signed,” he said.
“While the Opposition Leader Each Way Albo wants to claim it won’t happen, we know Labor have form on this.
“You only have to look back at the last time Labor won an election, in 2010, to see that Julia Gillard joined forces with the Greens and posed for a photo opp to celebrate the great moment.”
Labor moved swiftly to reject any possibility of a coalition with the anti-coal Greens.
Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese said he would not negotiate with fringe parties and Labor would form government in its own right.
On Twitter, Opposition resources spokesman, Queensland Senator Murray Watt, called Mr Bandt’s proposal “delusional”.
Dawson’s Labor candidate Shane Hamilton said the government’s attempt to merge Labor with the Greens was an act of desperation.
“This tired old government can‘t even come up with new attack lines and are trying to regurgitate the same old rhetoric from 2019,” he said.
“Instead of fabricating lies, they should try governing and support industries that provide fabrication jobs.”
Mr Hamilton also said in the event of a hung parliament, it would not be necessary for Labor to ally with the Greens.
“In the unlikely event of a hung parliament there are a whole range of independents Labor can turn to to pass legislation, no need to worry about the Greens and their one seat.
“They are irrelevant.”
In 2019, Labor copped a shellacking across much of regional Queensland from voters incensed at the party’s perceived ambivalence toward the coal sector.
In the resource-rich divisions of Capricornia and Flynn and the mining services hub of Dawson, voters delivered double-digit swings against Labor.
Capricornia, traditionally a Labor seat, went heavily for Capricornia MP Michelle Landry with an 11.7 per cent swing in her favour.
Ms Landry nabbed 62.4 per cent of the vote after preferences.
Her opponent, coal miner Russell Roberston, secured just 23.7 per cent of first preference votes, a massive 14.7 per cent swing against him.
In the 2016 election, by contrast, Ms Landry edged through with just 50.63 per cent of the vote after preferences.
“The LNP was particularly good at conflating Labor and the Greens in the 2019 election,” Dr Williams said.
“The Bob Brown convoy underscored that.”
It is widely believed the Bob Brown anti-coal convoy through Mackay and Clermont actually helped secure a Coalition win the following month.
Following the 2019 federal election, the state Labor government approved the controversial Adani mine and has since lent its support to other coal projects in the Bowen Basin.
The backflip at state level came after a sweeping victory in regional Queensland for the Coalition at that election.
In a visit to Mackay on January 12, Mr Albanese said Central Queensland’s coal firms should not be forced to lower their emissions until competitors in China and Indonesia meet the same targets.
“You don’t reduce emissions by taking action in Australia that reduces economic activity that leads to higher emissions somewhere else,” he said.
“No one, no company, will be asked or have any restrictions imposed which are greater than its competitors.
“Because what that does is, to use one of my mum’s old phrases, ‘Cut your nose off to spite your face’.”
Despite Labor’s charm offensive across regional Queensland, Dr Williams said there remained a degree of angst towards Labor on mining jobs and he was not surprised to see the LNP pitch an approaching Labor-Greens threat.
“Fear is a powerful campaign tool, it worked in 2019,” he said.
“Don’t vote for Labor because they are anti-mining jobs.”
Mr Williams said all parties tried to shift votes through ‘fear’ tactics.
“Labor used it in 2016 against Malcolm Turnbull and the privatisation of Medicare,” he said.
“All political parties engage in fear.
“One Nation has campaigned heavily on Safe Schools.
“Make your son wear a dress to school, that sort of nonsense.”
Dr Williams also noted, however, that changes in the social and economic landscape brought on by the pandemic meant the themes of 2019 would likely be less dominant in 2022.
“My experience is that there is a mood for change and swinging voters will come down on the side of change,” he said.
“The electorate is so economically pressured, it’s (the election) going to be on kitchen-table economics.
“Cost of fuel, cost of insurance, cost of living generally, cost of housing is a big one.”
Dr Williams said the government would likely bleed votes for a range of reasons.
“People are going to be leaving the LNP for all sorts of reasons,” he said.
“There will be some people who will be leaving it to go to the Labor Party because of empty supermarket shelves, or a feeling of economic pressure.
“There will be people who leave the LNP, particularly in seats like Dawson, because they don’t like vaccinations and vaccination mandates.
“So they will be moving to One Nation, KAP, Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, possibly even the Liberal Democrats.
“So there’s four right-wing fringe parties that could be beneficiaries of fleeing LNP voters to the right.
“The majority of those will preference the LNP back, but a higher than usual proportion could easily preference Labor ahead of the LNP and that’s the LNP’s big problem.
“Not so much that they are bleeding their votes to the Labor Party directly, but in Queensland they are bleeding votes to the right wing fringe and One Nation voters are particularly undisciplined in their preferences.
“So One Nation voters are not likely to follow how-to-vote cards, because that’s the whole point of their rationale.
“Their rationale is to stick one up the system.
“They’re not going to be told what to do.”
Just a week after his gambit, Mr Bandt said his party would not enter into a coalition with Labor.
“Let’s knock one final thing on the head,” he said.
“The Greens want to change the government, but not to be in a Liberal/National-style coalition with Labor.”
More Coverage
Originally published as Griffith University Dr Paul Williams says Labor-Greens alliance is LNP ‘fear’ tactic
Qld man on rampage with axe allegedly started fire, hit pedestrian with car
A Queensland man has been arrested after allegedly setting fire to a unit complex before going on a rampage with an axe, assaulting people, breaking into stores and driving into a pedestrian while attempting to flee.
‘Disappeared’: Qld family fears for young brother missing in Spain
A Queensland family is desperate for answers as international police investigate the disappearance of their little brother.
Pedestrian in his 50s hit by car overnight
The man was transported to hospital suffering chest, arm injuries after a vehicle and pedestrian incident south of Mackay.
Woman stalked husband’s alleged affair partner
A Queensland woman who thought her husband was having an affair with his work colleague stalked the other woman, repeatedly harassing her over three months.
Exclusive poll: Premier’s one-point miracle not enough to save Labor
An exclusive Courier-Mail poll reveals Steven Miles has pulled off a miracle comeback in the battle as preferred premier, but it appears unlikely to save Labor.
Who won week three? Watch most BRUTAL Voter Verdict yet
The Courier-Mail’s Voter Verdict have weighed in on the third week of the election campaign with a brutal assessment of both leaders. But who won the week?