PREDICTION: Possible Dawson and Capricornia winners emerge
Dawson looks safe but two possible threats still in Capricornia.
Mackay
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Federal Election 2019
- EXPLAINED: Your guide to voting in the Federal election
- Everything you need to know about Capricornia's candidates
- Everything you need to know about the candidates for Dawson
- Where to vote in the Mackay region
- Election day nerves from candidates looking for your vote
EXIT polling shows Dawson incumbent George Christensen has increased his lead in the quest for the seat.
Exit polls can only provide a snapshot of voting but the Daily Mercury polls put Mr Christensen at 49 per cent, more than double Labor's Belinda Hassan at 23 per cent.
Capricornia is looking less like the three-horse race shown yesterday after pre-polling but it could still come down to the wire.
LNP's Michelle Landry at 34 per cent has edged further in front of One Nation's Wade Rothery at 27 per cent and Labor's Russell Robertson on 24 per cent.
But the Capricornia totals from multiple polling booths from Mackay to Rockhampton do not take into account Mr Robertson's and Mr Rothery's standing in communities outside major town centres, especially in mining communities like Moranbah and Clermont for the Labor candidate.
One Nation's Debra Lawson is next closest in Dawson at 13 per cent.
The unknown factor in Dawson is KAP's Brendan Bunyan who is better known in the north of the electorate we did not poll as extensively.
All other parties in both electorates polled under 10 per cent.
The Daily Mercury and sister papers polls 577 people in Dawson and 349 people in Capricornia to get an early indication of which way the votes would go.
The Democratic Labor Party, a pro-life party, received zero votes in our poll in Capricornia and just three votes in Dawson.
The Nationals incumbents have both come out on top in tallies taken for the two electorates at Mackay, Rockhampton, Airlie Beach, Proserpine, Bowen, Townsville, Marian, Alligator Creek, Mirani, Glenella, Bucasia Beach, Northern Beaches, Walkerston, Bakers Creek, Ooralea and Sarina.
Political analyst Chris Salisbury said he was not surprised to hear Mr Christensen was out in front but the early indications for the huge Capricornia seat were unexpected.
"I didn't figure on One Nation so prominently," he said.
"Their preferences are going to count in Dawson, Capricornia and Flynn but I thought it would be more clearly a two-horse race and those preferences would be needed to decide who would come out on top.
"A profile certainly helps these people (Rothery is a former rugby league player) although just as equally it's Pauline's profile that helps more than anything.
"We're all a bit circumspect about making predictions on these seats because not only One Nation but Katter's party and Clive Palmer's party are all showing a lot of uncertainty around how much support they would attract but also where the preferences would go.
"There are a lot of competing names and parties on the right and I assumed they would be eating up each other's votes."
Mr Salisbury said he predicted Labor would win the election tonight but with a small minority.
That would mean, if Mr Christensen and Ms Landry win, they would find themselves in opposition.
Dawson (sample size 577)
- George Christensen (LNP) 49%
- Belinda Hassan (Labor) 23%
- Debra Lawson (One Nation) 13%
- Brendan Bunyan (KAP) 6%
- Imogen Lindenberg (Greens) 3%
- Lachlan Queenan (IND) 2%
- Colin Thompson (UAP) 2%
- Michael Turner (CNP) 2%
- Ann-Maree Ware (DLP) 0.05%
Capricornia (sample size 349)
- Michelle Landry (LNP) 36%
- Wade Rothery (One Nation) 27%
- Russell Robertson (Labor) 22%
- George Birkbeck (KAP) 14%
- Paul Bambrick (Greens) 4%
- Ken Murray (IND) 2%
- Lindsay Sturgeon (UAP) 2%
- Grant Pratt (CNP) 2%
- Richard Temple (DLP) 0%
Originally published as PREDICTION: Possible Dawson and Capricornia winners emerge
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