Tigers make tipsters look silly

If you are an NRL tipster claiming to be going at better than 50 per cent, you are either the next Nostradamus, or lying.

WILD WESTS: Benji Marshall's Tigers spoiled Billy Slater's 300th NRL game with a 10-8 defeat of the Storm at AAMI Park. Picture: HAMISH BLAIR

IF YOU are an NRL tipster and can claim to be going at more than 50 per cent over the first two rounds, you are either the next Nostradamus or closing your eyes and throwing darts.

The first 16 matches of the 2018 season have produced more upsets than not, and thus more questions than answers.

The Wests Tigers were meant to finish bottom four again, right?

Even the most die-hard fans could not have expected wins over the Roosters and Storm to open the season - not with a straight face at least. But does that make the Tigers a premiership fancy? Or even a top eight chance?

The easy answer to those questions is a categorical "no”, but if the first two weekends of the season have shown us anything, it is we really know very little at this point.

They are still heavy outsiders ($2.30 with Ladbrokes) to defeat the Broncos this weekend, who have not exactly set the world on fire to this point.

Where art thou, Qld?

IT IS never a good idea to read too much into the first few rounds of a season, because there are still a plethora of play-the-balls between now and finals time.

But we can still get excited about is just how wide-open this season appears to be.

The Cowboys looked in ominous form in round one, but without Michael Morgan they stumbled to a shock loss against a Broncos side many labelled disappointing after being rolled by the Dragons.

Gold Coast surprised many to pip the Raiders by two points, before disappointing against the Warriors.

The three Queensland sides all sit 1-1 and outside the top eight after two rounds.

Premiership fancies the Roosters, with Cooper Cronk and James Tedesco in the line-up, looked almost inept in attack against the Tigers. But then the boys from Leichardt Oval kept the Storm to just eight points - in Melbourne!

This is a side that finished 14th last season, with a -158 point differential, and lost supposed key posts in Aaron Woods and James Tedesco. Are the top two sides from last season struggling to get their new combinations right, or are the Tigers just that good in defence?

I dare-say the answer lies somewhere in between.

If the NRL is anything to go by...

THEN round one of the AFL season could also throw up some heavy upsets. For my sake, I hope that does not start tomorrow night when Richmond host Carlton. The Tigers have won five season-openers on the trot against the Blues, and on paper there is a clear gulf in class. But we said the same about Wests Tigers and the Roosters.

Essendon are tipped by many as the likely big mover this season, and will have their credentials tested early by the Crows. Adelaide struggle playing in Melbourne, as their grand final defeat showed, so do not count the Bombers out from inflicting an early upset.

The Lions open their campaign away to St Kilda, and this one is a coin flip. The Saints are without Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna, heralding a new era at Docklands. After eight seasons away from September action, the Lions finally appear to be trending upward with a nucleus of exciting young talent. This will be one of the more interesting games to watch as a neutral.

Port Adelaide are tipped to crack the top four, and host Fremantle on Saturday. The Dockers were disappointing in 2017, but put the Eagles to the sword in pre-season and have a fully fit Nat Fyfe back on deck. It could be far closer than some anticipate.

Gold Coast and North Melbourne will play to decide who has early-season favouritism as the likely wooden spoon 'winner' - that is just about where the interest ends.

The Hawks and Pies have had some fantastic encounters in recent seasons, and this shapes as another coin flip. The Hawks have lost some of their luster after a decade of success, but Collingwood have not set the world on fire either. Pies for me, just.

GWS are no longer the youngsters of the competition. They are in a 'win-now' window, and need to get going on Sunday against the Dogs. They should have too much for the boys from Whitten Oval.

Geelong are the biggest enigma for me. Just how Gary Ablett changes things at the Cattery is a question waiting to be answered. Can the Demons upset the apple cart and show they can be a finals contender this season? We will not get that answer from one match, but I think the Dees can surprise for a win.

And on enigmas, the Swans started 0-6 before commencing a 15-3 run to finish last season. West Coast welcome back talisman Nic Natanui from injury, but I think Sydney are too strong even in the west.

Originally published as Tigers make tipsters look silly