Campbell: ‘Safe’ Victoria suddenly an election headache for Albanese and Labor

All of a sudden, Victoria is unexpectedly turning into a massive election headache for Anthony Albanese and Labor, writes James Campbell.

It’s a strange paradox of Australian politics that, despite being the second biggest state, Victoria doesn’t really count.

The reason for that is simple – at most elections there are only one or two Victorian seats up for grabs.

The last time Victoria was front and centre in a federal election campaign was 1990, when Bob Hawke dropped nine seats. Hawke was only returned in a majority because he won five seats elsewhere.

Now, suddenly, it is dawning on the political world that if Peter Dutton gets to the Lodge in one election, it will be Victoria that gets him there.

The reason is because the state is in a similar situation to the early 1990s.

The last time Victoria was front and centre in a federal election campaign was 1990, when Bob Hawke dropped nine seats.

In March 1990, Victoria was midway through the third term of an increasingly unpopular state Labor government beset by economic problems of its own making.

Victoria is not in the dire straits it was then but, just as in the early 1990s, Victorians are markedly more pessimistic than the rest of us.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese with Labor candidate Jodie Belyea before she won the Dunkley by-election. Picture: David Crosling

SEC Newgate’s latest “mood of the nation” survey included a state-by-state breakdown of how people think things are going. Overall, 60 per cent of Australians think we’re heading in the wrong direction, which is bad news for Albo.

At 66 per cent, Victorians were the clear leader on the gloom index. At 27 per cent, recent polling has the state government’s primary almost 10 points down from the last election.

The collapse in support for Labor in Victoria is a double disaster because, not only will any losses there have to be made up elsewhere, but most observers have assumed Victoria is the state where the government has the best chance of picking up seats.

But, in recent weeks, the Liberals have been polling in Melbourne and the results have come back with two-party-preferred swings of between 5 and 7 per cent. A 5 per cent swing would give the Liberals three Vic seats – Aston, Chisholm and McEwen – plus Dunkley if one assumes the starting position is this year’s by-election result. Liberal Party polling – and according to last week’s Saturday Paper, teal polling too – shows it is also a chance to knock off Monique Ryan in Josh Frydenberg’s old seat of Kooyong.

Winning five seats would make Victoria more important to Dutton than any other state. Coalition insiders say, on their best-case scenarios, NSW is only likely to give them four, both Queensland and WA three, and Tassie and SA one seat each.

Federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. Picture: Pema Tamang Pakhrin

What makes this nightmare scenario worse is the way Victorian Labor has structured its campaign infrastructure. Because for the past 30 years there have been very few seats up for grabs, the Victorians have not felt the need to employ permanent campaign staff attached to specific seats as happens in NSW.

Instead it has relied on campaign flying squads sent wherever needed.

And with a 2PP swing of between 5 and 7 per cent, it won’t just be these four seats that will need to be resourced properly, the ALP will also have to run proper campaigns in the four other seats it holds with margins under 8 per cent.

If that wasn’t bad enough, it has another three inner-city seats where it will have to campaign hard against the Greens.

But insiders say state Labor polling also shows the party is doing markedly worse in outer suburban Melbourne and the regions.

If that’s right then, even though it’s on margin of 10 per cent, the ALP will need to pay attention to Gorton, where the popular local MP Brendan O’Connor is retiring.

All up that’s 12 seats it will have to put resources into before it can even think of chasing wins off the Liberals

All of a sudden, Victoria is unexpectedly turning into a massive headache for Anthony Albanese.

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Originally published as Campbell: ‘Safe’ Victoria suddenly an election headache for Albanese and Labor