Warlord Prigozhin exiled to Belarus as Vladimir Putin tries to win over mercenaries
Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was on his way to an uncertain future in Belarus after cancelling his chaotic coup attempt against the Kremlin.
Exiled Russian warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin was on his way to an uncertain future in Belarus after cancelling his chaotic coup attempt against the Kremlin, as a severely weakened Vladimir Putin sought to pull Prigozhin’s thousands of loyal mercenaries and former convicts into line.
The Wagner Group warlord, 61, was last seen being cheered by crowds in the southern Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don being driven to Belarus.
Prigozhin as of Sunday night had fallen silent after weeks of constant social media posts, raising doubts about his whereabouts and future intentions.
Putin ally and Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko brokered an astonishing turnaround deal at the weekend that saw Prigozhin call off his attempt to topple Russia’s military leadership, just as 5000 Wagner Group troops were 200km outside Moscow.
Putin’s former personal chef, whose command of a private army helped Russia win the long siege of Bakhmut, will no longer be anywhere near the Kremlin.
Putin had warned the Wagner Group that their rebellion was a deadly threat that would be quashed with brutal force.
Instead, Prigozhin and his troops have kept their lives – for now.
In an effort to exert control and carry on as if nothing significant had happened, the Kremlin tried to downplay the insurrection, saying the criminal case against Prigozhin has been cancelled and no Wagner personnel would be charged for involvement in the armed rebellion.
Wagner Group supporters suggested Prigozhin would be allowed to return to Africa to command his private army there, although the warlord’s fighters in Ukraine, including those released from prisons, are to be seconded into the Russian military.
Prigozhin’s troops who did not take part in the insurrection will be offered contracts by the Russian Defence Ministry, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
This could be the cause of further dissent, given that Wagner commanders are not pleased about having to report to a Russian command structure they despise and ridicule.
Prigozhin is relying on the word of Putin to stay alive, with his once close friend now a furious, humiliated dictator who has quelled previous and less obvious dissent with poison and apparent suicides.
And that was before Prigozhin stripped bare Putin’s strongman and invincible persona, which has propped up his 23-year leadership of Russia.
The Institute of War in Washington DC says the Kremlin faces a deeply unstable equilibrium, with the deal to send Prigozhin to exile in Belarus rather than his immediate execution, being a “short-term fix, not a long-term solution”.
Prigozhin had taken over the Rostov-on-Don HQ of Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine on Saturday morning and then his troops began a “March for Justice” towards Moscow.
Angered by the attacks on his troops in Ukraine and the inept leadership of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russian chief of army staff Valery Gerasimov, they got to within 300km of the capital, shooting down seven Russian military aircraft and helicopters on the way, before backing down.
Crucially to all of the country, Putin is now seen as a frightened president who took the country into an illogical war with a neighbour, costing it deeply, and was unable to foresee rebellion at the highest order.
The next moves on his future lie with the siloviki – his inner circle – and their manoeuvres behind another possible leader.
Prigozhin had been demanding the sacking for incompetence of both Shoigu and Gerasimov, and it’s unclear whether Putin had agreed to those terms in the deal.
Prigozhin’s about-face late on Saturday came after Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyov fiercely defended Putin and immediately sent bands of men to Rostov-on-Don. Their attacks were in abeyance while negotiations were continuing.
Any failure to come to a deal would have meant the Wagner Group would have been defending it’s newly consolidated southern Russian base while simultaneously launching an audacious Moscow coup attempt 1000km away.
Prigozhin knew his weakness was air support, which is why he secured two military airfields and the warehouses of defence supplies in the opening hours of the mutiny, but while ground troops in neighbouring oblasts were joining the Wagner effort, air force personnel weren’t coming across.
He may have overestimated getting support from General Sergei Surovikin, the deputy commander of Russian forces in Ukraine for whom Prigozhin has high respect. Even some of the organisations that had helped Wagner in the past– Kursk Oblast, the Chechens, the Union of Donbas Volunteers – failed to back him.
The longer consequences are obscure. Putin’s faith in his intelligence agencies must be in doubt, although US spy agencies had briefed the White House about possible unrest in Russia 24 hours before it happened and they believe the Kremlin would have also been informed such a rebellion was in play.
More Coverage
Boeing to cut 10pc of workforce amid large losses
The aviation giant has had to ‘reset to align with financial reality’ as a machinist strike compounds problems.
When the hurricane relief worker turns out to be a neo-Nazi
The contentious US presidential race that has sharply politicised the storms is providing a new opening for hate groups that were already on the rise.