Battered Iran signals it wants to reduce hostilities with Israel and negotiate

Messages passed by Tehran through intermediaries seek a return to talks if the US stays out of the fight with Israel.

In this photo released by his office, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei attends a ceremony on June 4. Israeli strikes have killed key military leaders, including much of the top echelon of Iran’s air force, leaving Ayatollah Khamenei increasingly isolated. Picture via AP

Iran has been urgently signalling that it seeks an end to hostilities and resumption of talks over its nuclear programs, sending messages to Israel and the US via Arab intermediaries, Middle Eastern and European officials said.

In the midst of a ferocious Israeli air campaign, Tehran has told Arab officials they would be open to returning to the negotiating table as long as the US doesn’t join the attack, the officials said.

They also passed messages to Israel saying it is in the interest of both sides to keep the violence contained.

But with Israeli warplanes able to fly freely over the capital and Iranian counterattacks inflicting minimal damage, Israeli leaders have little incentive to halt their assault before doing more to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites and further weaken the theocratic government’s hold on power.

An injured man is helped to leave the scene after an explosion in downtown Tehran, amid Israel's campaign of strikes against Iran. AP Photo/Amir Kholousi/ISNA

Israeli strikes have killed key military leaders, including much of the top echelon of Iran’s air force, leaving Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei increasingly isolated. But the impact on nuclear facilities has been modest and analysts say it could take a long air war to get the results Israel wants.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the attacks will continue until Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missiles are destroyed, and he has shown no indication he is ready to stop. He has also said regime change isn’t a goal but could be a result given the Iranian leadership’s weakness.

Israeli officials have said the military has prepared at least two weeks of strikes. On Saturday, French President Emmanuel Macron told his Iranian counterpart “to return swiftly to the negotiating table to reach an agreement’’, and Arab leaders have called for an end to the fighting. President Donald Trump resisted a military campaign for much of the year but has since cheered on Israel’s attacks.

“I think it’s time for a deal, and we’ll see what happens, but sometimes they have to fight it out,” Mr Trump told reporters on Sunday.

Securing a pause could give Iran breathing room to regroup and for pressure to build internationally against Israel’s campaign. It would also be a win for Tehran to keep the US from bringing its bunker-busting military capabilities into the fight.

Tehran appears to be betting that Israel can’t afford to get stuck in a war of attrition and would have to seek a diplomatic solution eventually, Arab diplomats who have spoken with the Iranians said.

Iranian officials said they thought Israel lacked a clear exit strategy and would need US help to do meaningful damage to targets such as the Fordow uranium-enrichment facility, which is buried under a mountain.

“The Iranians know the US is supporting Israel in its defence, and they are sure the US is supporting Israel logistically,” an Arab official said. “But they want guarantees the US won’t join the attacks.”

Iran has told Arab officials it could accelerate its nuclear program and expand the scope of the war if there are no prospects of resuming talks with the US

There is no indication Iran is ready to make new concessions in nuclear talks, the Arab intermediaries said. The diplomatic effort led by the Trump administration was stalled over Iran’s refusal to stop enriching uranium before the talks were cut short by Israel’s attacks last week.

Before the attack, a senior Israeli official said that an end to enrichment was the minimum Israel could accept from Iran. Israel and Gulf states are also concerned with Iran’s support for regional militias and its ballistic-missile program, which theoretically could come back up for discussion if Iran is backed into a sufficiently deep corner.

Israel has targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities and staff, as well as its military leadership. Over the weekend, Israel and Iran opened a new dimension to the conflict by striking at each other’s energy facilities. They are also inflicting mounting casualties on civilians.

Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman have been lobbying the US to pressure Israel to stop the fighting, Arab officials said.

They have warned the conflict could widen if Israel and Iran don’t return to the negotiating table – putting nearby energy assets at risk with potentially significant consequences for oil markets and the global economy.

The Wall Street Journal