What will a Gaza ceasefire look like?

The deal between Israel and Hamas will free civilians imprisoned on both sides, with the first three Israeli hostages probably freed on Sunday. Beyond that the future is uncertain.

Israel and Hamas have signed a ceasefire deal that will end the war in Gaza and release Israeli hostages held there. Mediators including the United States, Qatar, and Egypt hope the agreement will lead to a durable peace after a devastating war that changed the Middle East for ever.

What are the terms of the Gaza ceasefire?

The details are unconfirmed but it is expected to be a 42-day truce, which would be the first since a week-long pause in the second month of fighting.

Under the terms of the ceasefire Hamas is expected to release 33 hostages, mostly women and children, in groups of three or four. In exchange dozens of Palestinian prisoners would be freed from Israeli jails.

According to the ceasefire deal, Hamas will begin releasing the remaining hostages and Israel will start to withdraw from Gaza while releasing Palestinian prisoners.

Negotiations for a second phase would commence on the “16th day” after the first phase’s implementation.

This phase would cover the release of the remaining captives, including “male soldiers, men of military age, and the bodies of slain hostages”.

Negotiations would then pursue a permanent ceasefire under which Hamas would free all remaining hostages and Israel would withdraw entirely from Gaza, allowing reconstruction to begin.

The war started on October 7, 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel, killing some 1,200 people and kidnapping more than 200. Israel’s 15-month-long military campaign in the territory, involving a ground invasion and extensive bombardments, has killed more than 46,000 Palestinians, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.

When will hostages be released?

Hamas had released dozens of people in a previous deal and is believed to have held on to about 94. Of those, Israel believes at least 34 have been killed.

According to the Times of Israel, Israeli officials believe the 33 hostages set to be freed in the first phase are alive, though confirmation from Hamas is pending.

The remaining hostages will be released in phases — starting with women, children and over-50s — as Israel releases Palestinian prisoners and pulls its forces back to a buffer zone along the border. If the truce holds and an extension is agreed then men captured on October 7 (be they soldiers or civilians of fighting age) could be released in further exchanges.

Hamas is expected to free three hostages when the deal is announced and four more on its seventh day, followed by weekly releases. If a second phase is agreed, the release of the men would take place as Israel fully withdraws from Gaza.

Those first released would be “civilian women and female recruits, as well as children, elderly people … civilian ill people and wounded”, according to Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani.

An Israeli official said “several hundred terrorists” would be freed in exchange for the hostages, with the final number depending on how many of the 33 hostages are alive.

Two sources close to Hamas said Israel would release about 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including those with “lengthy sentences”.

Sheikh Mohammed said the number of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for the Israeli hostages in the second and third phases would be “finalised” during the initial 42 days.

A third phase would have Hamas hand over the bodies of dead hostages in return for a reconstruction plan under international auspices.

Israel’s positions in Gaza

During the initial, 42-day ceasefire Israeli forces will withdraw from Gaza and remain positioned on its border to “allow for the swap of prisoners, as well as the swap of remains and the return of the displaced people”, Qatar’s prime minister said.

The second phase would cover the release of the remaining captives, including “male soldiers, men of military age, and the bodies of slain hostages”, the Times of Israel reported.

Israeli media reported that under the proposed deal, Israel would maintain a buffer zone within Gaza during the first phase.

Israeli forces were expected to remain up to “800 metres inside Gaza stretching from Rafah in the south to Beit Hanun in the north,” according to a source close to Hamas.

Israeli forces would not fully withdraw from Gaza until “all hostages are returned”, the Israeli official said.

Haaretz newspaper reported that Israel would allow the movement of residents from southern Gaza to the north.

The source close to Hamas said Israeli forces would withdraw from the Netzarim corridor westward toward Salaheddin Road to the east, enabling displaced people to return through an electronic checkpoint equipped with cameras.

“No Israeli forces will be present, and Palestinian militants will be barred from passing through the checkpoint during the return of displaced persons,” he said.

Who brokered the ceasefire deal?

The agreement has been brokered in drawn-out negotiations mediated by the US, Qatar and Egypt. Qatar had been home to Hamas’s political leaders and the state acted as a channel for America and Israel to negotiate with the group.

Egypt also hosts a Hamas office and shares a border with Gaza, holding both considerable leverage on Hamas and a peace treaty with Israel. The US is Israel’s main arms and aid benefactor, and has tried pressuring both sides to compromise.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House on Monday is seen as having been key in pressing both sides to reach an agreement by this week. Trump had threatened there would be “hell to pay” if Hamas did not release the hostages, including American citizens, while he made clear to Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, that the war would have to end by the time of his inauguration.

What will happen to Gaza if the ceasefire becomes permanent?

Hamas has demanded withdrawal of all troops but the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have expressed desire to create a permanent buffer zone in Gaza for security reasons. It could be in Beit Hanoun, which overlooks Israeli settlements in Sderot.

Lots of humanitarian aid is also expected, addressing urgent needs like food, water, medical supplies and shelter, made scarce by Israel’s war. However, meeting the massive demand would require the reopening of land crossings and a commitment from Israel to allow unobstructed delivery.

The long and arduous process of rebuilding Gazan homes and infrastructure could also begin under the deal. This will take many years and require big international support.

What does this ceasefire deal mean for Hamas?

Hamas has been severely degraded by the war. Many of its senior leaders has been killed, including Yahya Sinwar, the orchestrator of the October 7 attack.

Hezbollah, Hamas’s Lebanese ally, has been decimated after it began attacking Israel. Iran, its main backer, finds itself weaker than ever with its air defences destroyed by Israeli airstrikes. The war indirectly led to the ousting of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad by rebels, cutting off Hezbollah’s main supply lines from Iran, while the Houthi rebels in Yemen have been hit by a campaign of airstrikes following their attacks and disruption of shipping routes.

Yet Hamas remains the most powerful group in Gaza, with no serious competition, and will have a say in how the territory is ruled, even though it has suffered considerable losses.

What does it mean for Netanyahu?

The Israeli prime minister, who faces corruption charges, has been criticised for his handling of the negotiations and for the security failure in anticipating October 7.

However, his popularity rose again after Israel delivered a fatal blow to Hezbollah and weakened Iran. His coalition is expected to last until the next elections in 2026, despite some threats from hardline ministers who oppose any ceasefire deal, seeing it as a concession to Hamas.

In November last year, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and the former defence minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity in relation to the war. Israel and the US deny or have contested the warrants and there is little prospect of Netanyahu being arrested or brought to trial.

Israel is also faced with a genocide case at the International Court of Justice, which is expected to take several years before any final ruling.