Voters trust Donald Trump on immigration and the economy

In polling taken after the debate, Donald Trump was placed seven percentage points ahead of Kamala Harris on the economy and eight points ahead on immigration and crime.

Donald Trump at a campaign event at the Linda Ronstadt Music Hall in Tucson, Arizona, on September 12. Picture: AFP

Donald Trump retains a clear lead over Kamala Harris on the key election issues despite being judged the loser of this week’s TV debate, according to polling for The Times.

The race remains extremely close overall, with Ms Harris on 46 per cent and Mr Trump on 45 per cent, a margin that was unchanged among Americans who were asked about their voting intentions before and after the debate on Tuesday night.

The same respondents judged Ms Harris the winner of the showdown by 55 to 25 per cent but Mr Trump’s persistent popularity may be explained by the belief that he would be a better president at handling key problems.

In polling taken after the debate, Mr Trump was placed seven percentage points ahead of Ms Harris on the economy and eight points ahead on immigration and crime. On the ability to “handle well” other leading issues, he leads by five points on national defence and three points on foreign policy.

Ms Harris leads by 12 points on abortion and 16 points on the environment, YouGov found.

“Trump has more issues that are good for him than she has issues that are strong for her,” said Carl Bialik, US politics editor at YouGov. “We ask voters every week what are the main issues and the two biggest by far are inflation and immigration. On the two issues that matter the most to people, Trump’s leading in both.”

Among the independent voters that both campaigns are aiming to attract, Mr Trump is ahead by 19 points on handling the economy, 18 points on immigration and 22 points on crime.

The figures may help to explain why he chose during Tuesday’s debate to repeat a baseless rumour that Haitians living in Ohio have been eating pet dogs and cats – bringing together the issues of immigration and crime, which polling suggests have the potential to resonate with half of all voters.

A total of 20 per cent of respondents told YouGov that they believed the story was true, 50 per cent said it was false, and 30 per cent said they did not know.

The percentage of Harris supporters saying they would “definitely vote” rose from 88 per cent to 90 per cent, while Trump voters saying the same fell from 86.3 to 85.6 per cent.

There was a five-point drop in the number of voters thinking Ms Harris is not qualified to be president, from 44 to 39 per cent.

The YouGov authors cautioned that, while voting intention had not moved since the debate, “this doesn’t mean that there won’t be a larger impact as time passes”. They added: “In the presidential debate between Biden and Trump in June, there was only a one-point change in voting intention in the first 24 hours following the debate but Mr Biden’s support shrunk more in the following days and weeks” as voters digested what happened.

There were signs in the polling that Ms Harris is beginning to chip away at Mr Trump’s large lead on immigration by reminding voters he told Republicans in congress to kill a border security bill this year.

In a focus group of moderate conservatives in swing states who were approached the day after the debate, many said that they found Mr Trump’s repeated focus on immigration tiresome. Some said they “tuned out” as he returned to the issue again and again.

“I got so tired of hearing Trump rail on how many millions of criminals are being let into the country and people’s crime rates are dropping, but ours are going up. I’d like to know where he got those stats,” Justin, from Georgia, said. Most were lifelong Republicans disenchanted by what they saw as its drift towards extremism.

Another interviewee said he was unaware of the border security bill issue until Ms Harris raised it on the debate stage. “That was a great example of Trump putting his ego before country,” said Jay, from Arizona. “Kamala goes, ‘He’s campaigning on problems, I’m campaigning on solutions’. That really resonated with me.”

Most were sceptical of Ms Harris before the debate. Asked who won the night, however, there was a unanimous show of hands for the Vice-President. Asked who they would vote for if the election was held tomorrow, every hand went up for Harris again. “I think she was the clear winner. She was more presidential,” said Faith, from Pennsylvania, reflecting on Mr Trump’s conspiracy-laden tirades on immigration, abortion and his 2020 election defeat. “He just shot himself in the foot.”

Joel, from Georgia, agreed. “Trump would start out great and then just drive himself into a wall after about 30 seconds. He gave generalities. She gave specifics. On every single topic.”

Ms Harris’s performance persuaded undecided voters who said they knew little about her until she joined the race two months ago.

The Times