Ukraine: All-out campaign is not Putin’s only option

Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin on Monday. Picture: AFP

As tensions mount over Russia’s military build-up near Ukraine, no one knows for sure what President Vladimir Putin plans to do next.

The White House has warned that Russia could launch a “surprise attack” this week, but a full-scale war in Ukraine is not Putin’s only option. The international crisis sparked by Russia’s troop deployments means that Putin has already achieved some of his objectives. He has made clear that allowing Ukraine to join NATO could spark a major war between Russia and the West and he has also shown that Moscow’s views cannot be easily dismissed. The recent flurry of diplomatic activity in Moscow is the first time since the Cold War that western officials have been forced to discuss Russian demands on European security, a fact that Putin will have noted with satisfaction. His next move will determine how the escalating crisis eventually plays out.

FULL-SCALE INVASION

Although Russia has deployed an estimated 130,000 troops to within striking distance of Ukraine, Moscow has not explicitly threatened to invade. Officials have also said on a number of occasions that Russia has no plans to attack its neighbour, while state television has accused Western countries of “hysteria”. Some Russian analysts say the build-up was a bargaining chip to strengthen Russia’s hand in its demands for NATO to withdraw from central and eastern Europe. Putin told foreign ministry officials in November that “tensions” in Europe were beneficial for Russian national security.

Any all-out invasion of Ukraine would likely result in large numbers of Russian casualties, a development that could spark protests in Moscow and a slump in Putin’s popularity. The Kremlin has used mercenaries to keep official military losses low in eastern Ukraine and Syria, but capturing key Ukrainian cities would require the use of the regular army. A successful invasion and the establishment of a puppet government in Kiev would also require a massive occupation force that would stretch Russia’s resources thin. The devastating economic and social consequences of a war would shatter the stability that Putin boasts of having brought to Russia after the chaotic years following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

AERIAL BOMBARDMENT

It is hard to see what objectives Russia could achieve by bombing Ukrainian cities if the assault was not followed up by a ground invasion. A Russian bombing campaign would be likely to make Ukrainians even more determined to resist and would almost certainly trigger harsh Western sanctions against Moscow.

Bombing alone would be insufficient to achieve regime change in Kiev even if it was accompanied by a massive cyberattack against Ukrainian infrastructure.

INCURSION INTO THE DONBAS

If Russia does send troops into Ukraine, their most likely destination is the Donbas region, where Kremlin-backed separatists have carved out two breakaway republics. Moscow wants Ukraine to implement the 2015 ceasefire deal, which would grant the rebel regions autonomy and could result in them having parliamentary representation in Kiev. Unsurprisingly, officials in Ukraine are less than enthusiastic about the prospect of Russian-backed MPs sitting in parliament. “Like it or not, it’s your duty, my beauty,” Putin said last week.

Russia has issued about half a million passports to residents of the Donbas, a move that could allow it to deploy forces on the pretext of protecting Russian citizens.

WITHDRAW TROOPS

Some Western analysts have said that Putin is now unable to simply withdraw Russian troops because this would mean losing face. Domestically, however, Russia would have little trouble in convincing its people that its troop deployments were innocent. Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said last week that when Russian forces return after military drills in Belarus, western countries would kick up “a big fuss to prove the West got Russia to de-escalate”.

The Times