Tehran’s militias in Iraq may disarm to avoid ‘bad scenario’ of US strikes

If the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq disarm to avoid the ‘bad scenario’ of a US attack, the unprecedented move would further erode Tehran’s influence in the Middle East.

Members of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Units supporting the government forces in Najafin 2016. Picture: AFP.

Iranian-backed militias in Iraq are considering the unprecedented decision of disarming in the hopes of avoiding air strikes after the Trump administration threatened Tehran’s so-called “axis of resistance”.

It would be the first time the Iranian-backed groups operating in Iraq had disarmed, which has long been an American demand. Doing so could further erode Iranian influence in the Middle East, given its allies of Hamas in Gaza, and Hezbollah in Lebanon, have been devastated in a war with Israel over the past two years.

Several groups of Shia militias, which form a coalition called the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, are in talks with the Iraqi government over laying down their arms. They include Kataeb Hezbollah, one of the most powerful militias, whose leader was assassinated in a US drone strike during Trump’s first term. It is a separate group from the Iranian proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon. A Kataeb Hezbollah commander said: “Trump is ready to take the war with us to worse levels, we know that, and we want to avoid such a bad scenario.”

The armed groups conducted drone and missile attacks on US bases after the outbreak of the Gaza war in 2023 as part of a regional response by Iranian-backed militia in support of Hamas. One attack last year killed three US soldiers in a Syrian base.

The Islamic Resistance commands an estimated 50,000 fighters, many of whom had signed up for the war against Isis during the previous decade. Iran has supplied them with heavy arms, including medium-range missiles.

American officials had told Baghdad that they were prepared to conduct air strikes in Iraq if the militias did not disarm, Reuters reported, as the US prepares for confrontation with their patrons in Tehran in the event that the current nuclear negotiations fail.

Trump has threatened Iran with military force if it does not enter an agreement with the US on its nuclear program. Iran, which insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, has agreed to indirect negotiations. It is not immediately clear whether the promises from the Islamic Resistance are simply a way to bide time until the threat from the Trump administration has ended.

The militia had already begun emptying out their headquarters and taking more measures to protect themselves after Trump took office in January.

Kataeb Hezbollah fought US and coalition troops after the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and worked closely with the powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp.

Iran and its allies have come under immense pressure from Israel and the US over the past two years, and Trump has vowed to increase that pressure, all the more powerful after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian dictator who was a key regional ally of Iran.

The talks are taking place as the US moves heavy bombers to an airbase in the Indian Ocean within striking distance of Iran and Yemen, where the US is conducting an aerial campaign against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. Trump has vowed to “annihilate” them after almost two years of Houthi attacks on US and other ships in the Red Sea.

The Times