Third candidate or ‘shockingly unpredictable events’ could yet upend Trump-Biden rematch
In the end, only American Samoa (population 45,035), Vermont (population 645,570) and Washington DC (population 712,816), representing between them 0.4 per cent of the 340 million American people, declined to opt for a long expected – for many, long dreaded – rerun of the 2020 presidential election this year.
On the least suspenseful Super Tuesday in memory Joe Biden lost a Democratic primary contest in American Samoa to hitherto unheard-of businessman Jason Palmer but otherwise romped home. For the Republicans, Nikki Haley secured a narrow win over Donald Trump in tiny Vermont on the same day, having notched a victory in the US capital a few days earlier. But Trump won all 14 other contests. Biden brought his total vote share in his primaries to 86 per cent; Trump to 64 per cent.
On Wednesday, Haley bowed to the inevitable, ending her campaign with a pointed message for Trump from a transatlantic icon of conservatism. “I have always been a conservative Republican and always supported the Republican nominee,” she said. “But on this question, as she did on so many others, Margaret Thatcher provided some good advice when she said, ‘Never just follow the crowd. Always make up your own mind’.”
So the election we all knew was coming has come. On Thursday, too late for this column, Biden was to deliver his third and most important State of the Union address. Though it’s a state occasion, this year it marked the beginning of the uphill effort to rescue Biden’s parlous position for November.
He starts in as weak a condition as any incumbent president in recent history. Biden’s approval rating stands at an average of 39 per cent, according to Real Clear Politics. At this stage in their re-election campaigns, Trump was at 45 per cent and went on to lose, Barack Obama was at 48 per cent and won narrowly, George W Bush was at 50 per cent and won even more narrowly.
Biden trails Trump in polls by an average of about 2 percentage points. That’s not much but the details are worse. At about 47 per cent, Trump is scoring better in polls than he has ever done. In seven states won narrowly by Biden four years ago, Trump leads by averages of 8 in Nevada, 7 in Georgia, 6 in North Carolina, 6 in Arizona, 4 in Michigan, 1 in Wisconsin. Biden leads by a half a percentage point only in Pennsylvania.
If the result is like this, Trump will win an electoral college landslide. But we are eight months out. An eternity in politics.
The contest will revolve around four pivots. First, the issues. For all the attention paid to lawsuits, democracy and character, voters seem fixated on core policy issues. And on all the things they care about, Biden is in deep trouble.
Immigration is the most important. It’s hard to see how Biden changes negative perceptions on this after three years in which his administration has let in more than seven million illegal immigrants – four times the number in four years under Trump.
On the economy, Biden is also way behind, but there are signs of potential. Inflation is gradually falling and unemployment remains low. If the economy stays strong, Biden could make up vital ground.
Foreign policy is another weakness for Biden. Since the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, Americans have given him low marks, and as wars rage in the Middle East and Europe, the sense of insecurity voters feel about the world is deepening. Biden urgently needs progress on both fronts to improve his chances. The one issue Biden could leverage to his advantage is abortion, where Democrats are strongly favoured over Republicans. But it doesn’t rank high on voters’ concerns.
The second pivot is age v character. At 81 Biden is widely deemed by voters to be too old for another four years in the job. Trump, though not much younger, does not arouse the same concerns. But the former president’s behaviour, especially after the 2020 election, and his forest fire of legal problems have left many undecided voters deeply uncomfortable.
As it stands, the various criminal cases Trump faces are being pushed into a distant future, but there will still be courtroom action. At least one trial – in New York over his alleged illegal payments to a porn star – will get attention. A conviction, even one viewed by many as politicised, could damage him.
The third pivot is the appeal of an independent candidate. We’ve never had an election before in which voters so disliked both major party candidates. That looks set to result in the strongest showing in decades by a third party. Robert F Kennedy, maverick scion of the famous family, with his taste for anti-vax campaigns and conspiracy theories, is getting about 10 per cent in polls.
If a more plausible candidate who pitches to voters in the vast middle of America gets in, they could do even better. Haley has ruled out a bid but still faces pleas to run. Kyrsten Sinema, the Arizona Democrat recently turned independent, announced her resignation from the Senate this week, expressing disgust at the lack of common ground in politics. With her nonpartisan record she could have real appeal to voters.
The final pivot is a mix of what another Donald, Rumsfeld, famously called known and unknown unknowns.
The two main candidates are so familiar there probably aren’t any more shoes to drop. But a serious health episode for either elderly gentleman, Biden in particular, would upend the race, maybe even force a change of candidate.
A major incident – a terrorist attack, or serious crimes committed by an illegal migrant – could be devastating for Biden. Escalation of the regional wars around the world could block out all other voter concerns.
And – this must be said – in a country with a long history of assassination, disorder and bloodshed, the threat of political violence is ever present, with wholly uncertain consequences.
In a campaign characterised so far by almost numbing predictability, who would bet against the shockingly unpredictable?
The Times
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