What to watch for in Joe Biden’s State of the Union address

Today’s address will give Joe Biden his largest TV audience before the Democratic convention and comes as he faces a public sceptical over his age and ability | WATCH LIVE

President Biden’s election-year State of the Union address is a moment loaded with potential risks and rewards.

The speech will give him what will likely be his largest televised audience before this summer’s Democratic convention. With former President Donald Trump now unchallenged to win the Republican presidential nomination, it will provide Biden with a prime-time platform to contrast his vision with his rival’s and appeal to the diverse coalition of voters who elected him in 2020.

But it also comes as the 81-year-old president faces a public that is sceptical over his age and ability to handle a second term, and as he faces criticism from parts of his political base over his response to Israel’s conflict with Hamas.

Here’s what to watch in Thursday’s State of the Union address at 1pm AEDT.

US Vice President Kamala Harris and then US Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) listen as US President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address in 2023. Picture: AFP.

2024 campaign

Biden will be addressing the nation two days after Trump dominated the Super Tuesday contests and in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s ruling that Trump can remain on Colorado’s primary ballot in a rejection of an attempt to challenge his eligibility.

Biden huddled with top aides to work on the speech over the weekend at Camp David and revisions are expected to continue until showtime. Aides said the address will focus on ways “to make life better for every American,” including lowering costs for such essentials as prescription drugs, raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations, and protecting the right to an abortion. In short, Biden will try to draw a direct contrast with Trump under the mantra, “Whose side are you on?” Trump, for his part, has painted his contest with Biden in stark terms, posting on his social-media platform Wednesday that “Biden is the enemy, he is destroying our country!” The key for Biden, Democratic allies said, is to present a forward-leaning message.

“There’s always an inclination to talk a lot about accomplishments, but it’s also important to lay out future goals because you have to give people something to vote for,” said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who worked on Biden’s 2020 campaign.

The Age Factor

Biden is also going to be judged on style and delivery – and closely watched for any flubs or missteps.

Polling shows that most voters think Biden is too old to serve another four years. Those fears were amplified following a recent special counsel report that alleged Biden had memory issues.

“People will be listening to what Biden says, but also watching how he says it,” said Michael Waldman, who served as former President Bill Clinton’s chief speechwriter. “If he can show some zest and joie de vivre and be a happy warrior, it will help him a lot.” The president has angrily rejected the suggestion that he is too old and his advisers see the speech as an opportunity to showcase vigour. They often recall a moment from the 2023 speech – when Biden went off script and jousted with Republicans on Social Security – as an example of him showing his ability to improvise. Biden was working with speech coach Michael Sheehan, who coached Clinton and former President Barack Obama, ahead of the speech, said a person familiar with the planning.

“If he can come close to doing what he did last year that would be great, ” said Rep. Ro Khanna (D., Calif.).

The Agenda

Biden will seek to use the address to point to progress on the economy, including declining rates of inflation and improving confidence. He will also include a consumer focus. Ahead of the speech, the White House outlined plans to cut credit-card late fees from an average of $32 down to $8 and target so-called “junk fees” across a range of goods and services.

The president plans to propose raising taxes on large companies, reprising some previous plans such as raising the corporate tax rate to 28% and boosting taxes on U.S. companies’ foreign profits. He will also propose raising a corporate minimum tax, which took effect this past year, to 21% from 15%, and will call for imposing stiffer limits on companies’ ability to deduct the wages of their highest-paid workers, according to White House officials.

Biden is expected to address immigration after he and Trump made duelling visits this past week to the U.S.-Mexico border in Texas. Biden has blamed Republicans for opposing a bipartisan border agreement in the Senate that would have allowed the government to expel migrants if crossings surpassed a daily threshold of 4,000. Trump has opposed the measure, calling it a “gift” to Democrats in an election year.

Biden is also expected to emphasise abortion rights more than he has in past speeches, as the Supreme Court ruling that eliminated the right to the procedure has proved a powerful motivator for Democrats.

Chamber Drama

Biden could face drama from the left and the right on Thursday night. Republicans opposed to his agenda will be in attendance. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.), will be seated alongside Vice President Kamala Harris behind Biden, in his First State of the Union address as speaker. Any instances in which Johnson appears to object, or joins in applause, signalling bipartisan support, will be notable.

Biden could also see frustration from within his own party. Progressive Democrats have been vocally critical of his response to the war between Israel and Hamas and pressed him to do more to curtail the bombardment of Gaza and a growing humanitarian crisis. Those frustrations have led to protests at many of Biden’s public events, and over 100,000 voters chose “uncommitted” in Michigan’s Democratic primary to push Biden to change course. The president has been calling on Hamas to accept a potential deal to release Israeli hostages in exchange for a temporary pause. Rep. Cori Bush (D., Mo.) has passed out pins for politicians to wear at the State of the Union showing their support for a ceasefire in Gaza.

The GOP’s response will be delivered by Sen. Katie Britt (R., Ala.), who at 42 is the youngest woman serving in the Senate. Britt is expected to make a generational appeal to viewers.

Rep. Nancy Mace (R., S.C.) said Biden would offer “denial and delusion, in terms of what’s currently going on in America.”

Guest Stars

The speech will be attended by a number of prominent guests, including Kate Cox, a Texas woman at the centre of a high-profile dispute with the state’s restrictive abortion law.

Cox, who will be a guest of first lady Jill Biden, sought legal permission to get an abortion in Texas after she learned that her foetus had a fatal diagnosis and later travelled out of state to get abortion care. The case appeared to be the first time a pregnant woman sought court intervention to obtain an abortion since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022.

Other guests in the first lady’s box will include United Auto Workers Union President Shawn Fain; Maria Shriver, a journalist and activist who is a member of the Kennedy family; and Latorya Beasley, an Alabama woman whose in vitro fertilisation process was disrupted by a state Supreme Court ruling that frozen embryos qualify as children under a state law.

The parents of imprisoned Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who is detained in Russia, will be there as guests of Johnson. The U.S. government has designated Gershkovich as wrongfully detained.

Who Will Watch?

In 2023, 27.3 million people watched the address, according to the Nielsen company. That was down from the 38.2 million who watched it in 2022. The audience is older. Of the 2023 audience, 73% were aged 55 and older, 19% were aged 35-54 and 5% were aged 18-34.

Lake, the Democratic pollster, said swing voters weren’t likely to tune in for this speech. “The people that are going to be paying the most attention are the base,” she said.

The Wall St Journal